The residents of Kencho Shacha Gozdi, a remote piece of land located some 90 kilometers west of Arba Minch, in the Southern Regional State’s Geze Gofa Zone were horrified to discover on the morning of July 21, 2024, that four of their neighbors had been buried alive by a landslide.
The villagers rushed to the scene of the disaster in hopes of rescuing their neighbors from the debris. Tragically, they became victims themselves when a second landslide struck the area, burying hundreds of people under immense piles of mud and stone.
When Disaster Risk Management Commissioner Shiferaw Teklemariam (PhD) appeared on television for a press briefing the following day, he reported a death toll of 137 and 400 evacuees. He stated that approximately 14,000 people had been directly affected by the disaster, which at that point was attracting both domestic and international attention.
Very soon, the figures had surged tragically. No less than 260 fatalities had been reported by July 25, while local officials indicated the number of displaced to be somewhere near 25,000. Only a handful of survivors from the disaster site are receiving hospital treatment, while hundreds more remain entombed beneath the rubble.
The remote rural setting makes it difficult to bring in heavy machinery to aid rescue efforts and scenes of people using spades, shovels, pickaxes, and their bare hands to desperately dig through the earth have come to define the horrific and heartbreaking tragedy. The remains of at least 260 victims were unearthed this way between July 22 and 25. There are predications that the number will still escalate.
The tragedy marks a departure from the typical bad news that Ethiopians have been living with over the last few years, which had mostly to do with a vicious cycle of mass man-made atrocities perpetrated by government forces and armed groups caught up in a series of bloody conflicts. Indiscriminate killings and the targeting of civilians have become common in the northern and central parts of the country, namely in the regions of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia, but the south has enjoyed relatively better stability and peace. This part of the country is now grappling with a different kind of tragedy: a natural disaster.
Nature’s fury has inflicted immense suffering. People are overwhelmed by grief as they search tirelessly for loved ones buried in the mud.
“‘There’s no time for mourning,’” said one resident, whose mother and two kids are among the missing. “We’re desperately digging for bodies.”
Tell-tale Signs
Experts at the Arba Minch University Geography Department had conducted a landslide risk assessment in the Gamo Zone last year. The research focused on the Gacho Baba district, which is not too far from the area where the disaster took place. The research site was not selected randomly, according to Abera Uncha (PhD), one of three experts who took part in the assessment.
While Kencho Shacha Gozdi was not included in this specific study, Abera noted that a similarly high landslide risk was identified in another part of the Gamo Zone.
“Our research indicated a high risk of a catastrophic landslide in the particular area,” Abera told The Reporter Magazine. “We alerted local authorities about the imminent danger and recommended the evacuation of residents. They have done so.”
Lemma Tadesse, a co-author of the specific research, attributes the causes of the landslides to an underlying geological structure that is still consolidating, human activities such as farming, and heavy rainfall as a precipitating event.
Lemma strongly recommends avoiding both habitation and agricultural activities in areas with similar geological conditions. He underscores the severe risks present in such areas, emphasizing their undeniable nature
The surrounding area has been consistently categorized as a landslide hotspot in numerous research studies. Its mountainous topography combined with the area’s inherently weak soil texture renders it exceptionally vulnerable to landslides, according to the findings of those studies.
High Risk Zones Nationwide
Ethiopia, a predominantly mountainous country, experiences landslides frequently although the death toll from these phenomena are typically nowhere near what recently transpired in Gofa.
Lemma classifies landslides as a potentially major natural hazard in Ethiopia, ranking it among the top three if thoroughly studied.
“A significant number of landslides occur each year in various parts of the country, but not on this scale,” explained Negesse Molla, a senior expert at the Ethiopian Geological Survey in charge of ‘hazardous phenomena’.
The institution defines ‘hazardous phenomena’ as events including earthquakes, floods, erosion, and landslides.
The available geo-hazard susceptibility mapping studies show that landsliding is widely associated with Northern- Northwest(N-NW), central, and South-Southwestern(S-SW) parts of Ethiopia.
Negesse shared a recent experience he had while conducting a survey in the vicinity of Bonga, located in the South West Regional State, halfway on the road between the towns of Jimma and Mizan Teferi.
“We found that up to 30 landslides had occurred in just two or three woredas. That particular area remains among those that are at the highest risk,” he told The Reporter Magazine.
The expert classified these 30 reported landslides as serious incidents, although not on the scale of the recent catastrophic event.
“We have a scale for landslides, and any incident we report is significant. These aren’t minor slides; they cause damage to crops, livestock, and property, forcing people to evacuate, and sometimes even resulting in fatalities. All 30 reported landslides have caused one or more of these impacts, “said Negesse.
He revealed that a landslide that took place in the Southern region’s Sheka Zone in recent months displaced close to 200 households.
The findings included under Negesse’s survey concur with those of a study conducted by the Department of Geophysics, Space Science, and Astronomy at Addis Ababa University in 2021, which revealed that 49 percent of the country’s land coverage is prone to landsliding.
The study classified 39 percent of the country’s land coverage as being at ‘moderate’ risk of landslides, while 10 percent was found to be at ‘high’ risk.
Authored by Getnet Mewa and Filagot Mengistu, the particular study titled ‘Landslide Risk in Ethiopia: distributions, causes, and impacts’ considered 600 different locations where landslide occurrence was “clearly observed.”
While expressing some doubt about the comprehensiveness of these surveys, Negesse acknowledges that the actual figures could be even higher than those reported in the study. Comprehensive nationwide mapping data on landslides remains woefully scarce.
The Ethiopian Geological Survey is in charge of compiling such data. However, the institution lacks comprehensive nationwide data, possessing information only from specific areas previously surveyed due to suspected susceptibility. Currently, a single mapping sheet covers a vast 18,000 square kilometers, which Nathanael considers insufficiently detailed.
Experts at the institution plan to conduct detailed mapping starting next year. Negesse emphasized the importance of such data for urban planning, stating that it should be a crucial consideration when establishing new towns and cities.
Heavy rainfall, weak geological formations, poor soil quality, shallow groundwater, land degradation, and deforestation are identified as primary factors contributing to landslides.
Globally, China, Afghanistan, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Rwanda, Turkey, Nepal, Guatemala, and Brazil are consistently ranked among the ten countries with the highest risk of landslide fatalities.
Landslides pose a significant global threat, accounting for up to 14 percent of all natural disaster fatalities in recent decades, according to World Disaster Statistics. The scale of this hazard is underscored by data from EOS, a science news magazine, which reports 83 fatal landslides in June alone this year. A staggering 2,300 lives have been lost worldwide due to landslides in the past six months.
Response to Current, Future Disasters
The full extent of the damage and other specifics of the Gofa landslide remain unclear. A comprehensive assessment by multiple agencies is expected to provide more details. A team of experts from the Ethiopian Geological Survey, the National Meteorology Agency, and the Disaster Risk Management Commission has been dispatched to the site to gather information and conduct assessments.
The international community’s response to the disaster was notably swifter than the domestic reaction, particularly that of the federal government.
An inter-agency rapid assessment team, coordinated by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA) and comprising World Food Programme(WFP), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), World Health Organization( WHO), International Organization for Migration(IOM), United Nations Population Fund(UNFPA), and World Vision, participated in the disaster response efforts, according to an OCHA statement.
From the local sphere, a broad spectrum of efforts has been mobilized. Remarkably, in a nation frequently characterized by stark political divisions, a unifying sense of compassion has emerged. While somewhat delayed, both regional and federal governmental entities have initiated disaster response operations, enlisting the support of the military to facilitate search and recovery endeavors. Drones have reportedly been used in these efforts.
Still, Negesse and Abera share a growing apprehension regarding the potential for similar catastrophic events in other areas.
“There are people still residing in areas we have identified as being at high risk of landslides in our studies,” Abera cautioned.
Recent landslides have been witnessed in different part of the Southern Regional State including Sheka and Mizan areas.
Lemma draws a comparison between such landslide-prone areas and Kencho Shacha Gozdi village, suggesting they share similar levels of risk. He highlights a common geological characteristic among the Konta, Dawro, and Gamo highlands
A heavier-than-usual rainfall for the rainy season and the increased precipitation has heightened concerns about potential landslides in high-risk areas.
“I live in constant fear of waking up to similar devastating landslide news,” Negesse told The Reporter Magazine. The expert emphasized the urgent need for comprehensive mitigation measures.
Recommended mitigation measures include reducing human activity in vulnerable areas, addressing land degradation, overgrazing, and deforestation, and, as a last resort, relocating residents from high-risk zones to safer locations.
