Anyone visiting the social media pages of Ethiopia’s Ministry of Agriculture and its affiliate institutions is greeted with images of vibrant farms with lush crops and tractors rolling slowly by. The photos reflect ambitions to modernize, mechanize, and grow the Ethiopian agricultural sector, which accounts for more than a third of the country’s GDP and employs an estimated two-thirds of its workforce.
However, the reality on the ground in several regions tells a drastically different story: the land lies dry and lifeless, even though this is the Kiremt rainy season—a time when the landscape should be thriving.
For millions of Ethiopians, the Kiremt rains are less a season than a calendar. They determine when fields are prepared, when seed goes into the ground, when pasture returns, and whether reservoirs and wells will carry communities through the months ahead. In 2026, that calendar has become unreliable.
Those eye-catching photographs do not depict the dreadful reality that countless farmers and their families are facing across Ethiopia Fields lie dry and fallow at the height of the Kiremt rainy season. Farmers watch in anguish as the seeds they sow fail to sprout, while their animals grow weak or perish from thirst and hunger.
From Irob in Tigray and North Gondar in Amhara, across broad stretches of Afar, and into Borena in Oromia, weeks have passed with little or no rainfall despite it being the height of the Kiremt rainy season.
Over the past month, a shocking number of livestock deaths have been reported across multiple woredas in these regions. Farmers in major crop-producing regions, such as Amhara and Oromia, report sowing their precious seeds only to see no germination, forcing them to re-plow fields and attempt a second planting. Crops in Tigray sprouted initially, only to dry up shortly after. Massive livestock losses—including camels, which are vital to pastoralists in Afar—have been recorded. The devastating cycle continues. Ethiopia is currently facing the brunt of El Niño. The impact was also evident in reservoir levels. Ethiopian Electric Power recently estimated that El Niño-induced conditions will reduce water inflows to dams by up to 20 percent.
As is often the case, figures regarding funding needs, the number of affected woredas nationwide, and related metrics remain a point of contention. Figures vary significantly across organizations. The FAO announced a requirement of USD 50 million to assist 4.4 million people in Ethiopia. By comparison, the Ethiopia Agriculture Task Force appealed for USD 78.8 million in its July advocacy note to support 2.4 million people. Meanwhile, the Tigray Regional State reported a funding requirement of USD 623 million to assist 3.7 million affected individuals, including IDPs, across its Drought Anticipatory Action Plan and Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness plan.
Government airwaves particularly at the federal level remain dominated by narratives highlighting Ethiopia’s progress in agricultural productivity boost and food security. Even in regional administrations, some officials reportedly attempt to suppress the news. Yet, a significant number have acknowledged the situation, highlighting a severe agricultural setback caused by low rainfall during this Kiremt season.
The Ministry of Agriculture states that mitigation mechanisms are in place, while maintaining that a full-scale drought is not occurring in the country.
“There is a clear deficit in rainfall, but it isn’t a drought yet,” contends Desalegn Teshale, state minister in charge of agriculture and horticulture development.
But Ethiopia’s El Niño problem does not end with the absence of rain. By the time the Kiremt season retreats, forecasts suggest that eastern and southern parts of the country could be confronting the opposite extreme: unusually heavy rainfall and flooding. A country waiting for rain in August may be preparing for floods only months later.
“Based on the preliminary information provided by the Meteorology Agency, we have been focusing on raising awareness among regional states to minimize the effects of El Niño,” the state minister said.
Desalegn told The Reporter Magazine that recommended mitigation measures include planting fast-maturing crops and downsizing livestock herds to better manage potential feed shortages.
The Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), in a special report issued on August 19, says the ongoing El Niño episode is forecast to strengthen over the coming months and persist through early 2027. Citing the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the report says there is a 95 percent chance that the event will be categorized as strong or very strong late in 2026. It also notes that El Niño’s strengthening through July followed a trajectory similar to the 1997–1998 episode.
For Ethiopia, the immediate concern is how that global climate event is translating into the country’s main rainy season.
The Ethiopian Meteorological Institute had forecast an uneven Kiremt. Southern and eastern Tigray, North and South Wollo, Afar and eastern Ethiopia were expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall, as were central and southern Oromia. Benishangul-Gumuz, western Oromia, Gambella and Southwest Ethiopia, by contrast, were forecast to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The institute also forecast differences in the timing of the season itself. The rains were expected to begin earlier in western and southwestern Ethiopia, while Kiremt withdrawal could occur earlier than usual in northeastern and central parts of the country and later in the south and southwest.
By August, rainfall observations were increasingly reflecting that uneven pattern.
The latest FSNWG assessment says widespread areas of central and northern Ethiopia received less than 60 percent of normal rainfall between June 1 and August 25, although the assessment includes a two-week forecast component. In the worst-affected areas, the season ranks among the driest on record.
Earlier, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) reported that through the first three weeks of July, Kiremt onset had been delayed by as much as four weeks in parts of Amhara and around three weeks in parts of Afar, northern Somali and eastern Oromia. Northern and eastern Tigray also experienced a delayed onset and persistent rainfall deficits.
Across northern, eastern and central Ethiopia, FEWS NET reported rainfall deficits ranging from roughly 40 to 70 percent of typical levels during June and July. Between June 1 and July 10, rainfall totaled less than 45 percent of average in many areas.
EMI’s 10-day rainfall assessments for July and the first ten days of August showed Afar, Somali and southern Oromia repeatedly receiving little or no rainfall, while parts of western Ethiopia recorded more substantial rainfall.
The problem is no longer confined to rainfall maps.
FSNWG cites field reports from northern Ethiopia showing delayed planting, poor germination, reduced planting rates, and crop wilting. Crop and vegetation monitoring also indicated deteriorating agricultural conditions in several affected areas, raising concern about below-average cereal production.
In Amhara, nearly 80 percent of a planned 5.6 million hectares had been planted by late July, according to the regional Disaster Risk Management Bureau. In eastern Amhara, however, planting stood at around 60 percent. FEWS NET also reported Agricultural activities in Tigray were significantly delayed.
In East and West Hararghe, FEWS NET reported that continued moisture stress caused some long-cycle Meher crops, particularly maize, to wilt or dry up. Some short-cycle crops failed to germinate or wilted after emerging, while damaged crops were increasingly being used as livestock feed.
In West Hararghe, Belg production was estimated at 35 percent below average, with losses exceeding 50 percent in several lowland woredas, according to the zonal disaster risk management office.
The effects of rainfall failure extend beyond crop fields.
FSNWG warns that severe deficits could reduce the recharge of rivers, ponds, reservoirs and groundwater, worsening shortages for households, livestock and agriculture. In pastoral and agro pastoral areas, declining pasture and water availability could weaken livestock body condition, reduce milk production and productivity, lower household incomes, and push livestock prices down.
Greater livestock migration in search of water and pasture could also increase competition around water points, grazing areas and livestock corridors, raising the risk of localized resource-based conflict.
FSNWG says the consequences of poor crop production are likely to become more pronounced after harvest, particularly during the first half of 2027. Households could face reduced food stocks, lower agricultural incomes and greater reliance on markets, while the lean season, when household food stocks are typically lowest before the next harvest, could begin earlier or become more severe than usual in badly affected areas.
The scale of the threat has already triggered anticipatory action.
A July advocacy note from the Ethiopia Agriculture Task Force identified 163 districts expected to be affected by El Niño-induced moisture stress and appealed for USD 78.8 million to support 2.4 million people. Areas of greatest concern included Afar, parts of Tigray and Amhara, eastern and southern Oromia, northern Somali, Dire Dawa, and parts of Central Ethiopia.
The note says the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission had formally triggered implementation of anticipatory action under the National Common Framework on Drought Anticipatory Action. Proposed measures include drought-tolerant and short-maturing seeds, livestock vaccination and treatment, supplementary feed, strategic destocking, water harvesting, and rehabilitation of water points.
In its August 2026 ‘Urgent Call for Assistance’ on mitigating the impacts of El Niño, FAO said more than 163 woredas have been identified as vulnerable, while 114 woredas with an estimated 9.3 million residents have triggered anticipatory action. Of these, 84 woredas in Afar, Amhara, northern Somali, and Tigray have been classified as priority one and two areas.
The organization is seeking USD 50 million to assist 4.66 million people between June 2026 and March 2027.
Its planned response includes animal-health services, supplementary livestock feed, drought- and flood-tolerant and early-maturing seeds, fertilizer, cash assistance and rehabilitation of water sources, irrigation schemes, and flood-protection structures.
FAO warns that below-average rainfall combined with above-average temperatures could accelerate soil-moisture loss, reduce crop establishment and yield potential, limit pasture and water availability, and place additional stress on livestock production.
Tigray offers one of the starkest examples of the emerging humanitarian consequences.
Following consultations with stakeholders in the region, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Ozonnia Ojielo said Tigray was experiencing a significant drought with “devastating consequences.” According to him, 148 kebeles in the region had not yet seen a drop of rain during the season.
The drought is unfolding against already extensive humanitarian needs and comes amid an observable decline in global humanitarian aid.
Yet drought is only one half of Ethiopia’s emerging El Niño risk.
The same climate event associated with suppressed June–September rainfall in some parts of the country is expected to produce wetter conditions elsewhere during the final months of the year.
FSNWG says strong El Niño conditions are typically associated with above-normal October–December rainfall across the eastern sector of the Greater Horn, including eastern and southern Ethiopia.
Those rains could bring benefits. Above-average rainfall can replenish groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, restore pasture, and improve livestock productivity. But excessive rainfall carries its own risks.
FSNWG warns that flooding can destroy crops, damage homes, roads and bridges, displace communities, disrupt markets and humanitarian operations and increase the risk of water- and vector-borne disease outbreaks.
The report also notes that rainfall in Ethiopia can create consequences beyond its borders. Heavy rain in the southern Ethiopian highlands can contribute to downstream flooding in Somalia.
The prospect of drought followed by flooding is not without precedent. FSNWG identifies 1997 and 2023 among relevant historical comparisons.
In 1997, rainfall deficits in parts of Ethiopia contributed to poor Belg (short rainy season running February-May) production, moisture stress during the Meher (harvest) season and increased food-assistance needs. Later that year, strong El Niño rains produced widespread flooding across Ethiopia and neighboring countries, causing displacement, infrastructure damage, disease outbreaks and crop losses.
In 2023, below-average June–September rainfall affected western Ethiopia before exceptionally heavy October–December rains contributed to widespread flooding across Ethiopia and the broader region.
The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission is already preparing for both ends of the threat.
Its moisture-stress warning identifies vulnerable areas across Tigray, Afar, eastern Amhara, eastern Oromia, northern Somali, Dire Dawa, and parts of Central and South Ethiopia.
A separate National Flood Warning issued in July identifies flood-prone locations across Gambella, Amhara, Afar, Somali, South Ethiopia, Southwest Ethiopia, Central Ethiopia and Oromia, warning of flash flooding and river overflow associated with intense rainfall over short periods.
For the moment, the risks remain geographically divided.
A farmer in drought-affected northern Ethiopia is worried about whether enough rain will arrive before the planting window closes. A pastoral household may be watching a shrinking water point and deteriorating pasture. In eastern and southern Ethiopia, meanwhile, attention may soon turn to how much rain arrives and how quickly.
El Niño does not leave Ethiopia with one national weather outcome, but exposes different parts of the country, at different times, to opposite extremes. That may be the defining challenge of Ethiopia’s 2026 rainy season: preparing not simply for drought or for floods, but for both.
