Two decades of military intervention in Somalia, much of it funded by the United States, have failed to decisively weaken al-Shabab, the al-Qaeda-linked Islamist militant group that remains a powerful force in the war-torn Horn of Africa nation according to an assessment by Foreign Policy Magazine.
The report comes as the United States prepares to end its financial support for the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS), which provides logistical assistance—including food, fuel and medical supplies—to the African Union peacekeeping mission.
The U.S. Mission to the African Union announced in July that the support would end on Dec. 31, effectively ending U.S. backing for the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia.
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Since African Union peacekeepers were first deployed to Mogadishu in 2007, the mission has pushed al-Shabab out of major cities, including the Somali capital. But the group continues to control or exert significant influence across large parts of rural southern and central Somalia, where it has developed structures resembling a parallel state.
The United States has provided an estimated USD3.6 billion since 2007 to support successive African Union missions in Somalia, according to a July U.S. Congressional Research Service assessment cited by Foreign Policy. The funding includes nearly USD2 billion through UN support offices and about USD1.6 billion in bilateral assistance to African troop-contributing countries.
Yet analysts told Foreign Policy that al-Shabab has used the prolonged conflict to build its own financial and administrative systems. Jethro Norman, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, said the group raises an estimated USD100 million to USD150 million annually through taxation and operates its own courts and governance structures.
“Al-Shabab has focused on building a state,” Norman said, contrasting the group’s approach with international efforts focused on sustaining peacekeeping operations.
The group has also exploited resentment over foreign military intervention and allegations of abuses by security forces. Analysts say memories of Ethiopia’s 2006 intervention and subsequent U.S.-backed military operations helped al-Shabab portray itself as a resistance movement.
The group has regained much of the territory it lost during a 2022–23 Somali government offensive. During a counter-offensive in 2025, its fighters advanced to within about 45 kilometers of Mogadishu, prompting Turkey to deploy additional troops and drone operators.
Concerns are growing over whether Somali forces can assume responsibility for national security. Troop-contributing countries have reportedly sought an 18-to-24-month extension of the mission.
