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Inflation Defies NBE’s Target, Escalating to 15.3 Percent Months After Single-Digit Drop

The Reporter MagazinebyThe Reporter Magazine
August 26, 2026
Inflation Defies NBE’s Target, Escalating to 15.3 Percent Months After Single-Digit Drop
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Ethiopia’s annual inflation rate rose to 15.3 percent in July 2026, the fourth consecutive monthly increase after inflation fell into single digits earlier in the year, according to the Ethiopian Statistical Service (ESS).

Headline inflation stood at 9.4 percent in March, before rising to 11.7 percent in April, 13.4 percent in May, 13.9 percent in June and 15.3 percent in July.

The increase comes months after the National Bank of Ethiopia said its single-digit inflation objective had been met. In its March Monetary Policy Committee statement, NBE said the 9.7 percent inflation rate recorded in February meant its single-digit objective had been met since December 2025. The central bank said maintaining a tight monetary policy stance remained necessary to sustain single-digit inflation.

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Inflation returned to double digits in April and has increased in every month since.
The July rate was also higher than the 13.7 percent recorded in the same month a year earlier. On a month-to-month basis, consumer prices increased by 2.6 percent in July, compared with 0.9 percent in June.

Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation stood at 15.7 percent in July, compared with 15.1 percent in June and 11.0 percent in March. Non-food inflation reached 14.8 percent, up from 12.2 percent in June and 7.0 percent in March.

Non-food inflation more than doubled from 7.0 percent in March to 14.8 percent in July, while food inflation rose from 11.0 percent to 15.7 percent over the same period.

The increase was reflected across several everyday food categories. ESS reported that prices for sugar, jam, honey and chocolate increased by 39.4 percent compared with July a year earlier. Meat prices rose by 21.6 percent, oils and fats by 20.3 percent, fruit by 19.2 percent, and milk, cheese and eggs by 18.9 percent. Prices for other food products increased by 18.2 percent, vegetables by 13.6 percent, and bread and cereals by 8.0 percent.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages account for 53.5 percent of the CPI basket, compared with 46.5 percent for non-food items. Among non-food categories, education prices increased by 25.3 percent, miscellaneous goods and services by 19.3 percent, alcoholic beverages and tobacco by 16.0 percent, transport by 15.6 percent, restaurants and hotels by 15.3 percent, furnishings and household equipment by 15.2 percent, and housing, water, electricity and other fuels by 13.3 percent.

NBE had already acknowledged the renewed increase in inflation in its July Monetary Policy Committee statement, saying headline inflation had returned to double digits from April. The central bank said inflation was likely to remain in double digits over the following six months, while maintaining its goal of single-digit inflation over the medium term

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