As of May 1, 2026, China has implemented its zero-tariff treatment to all 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic ties. This move creates new opportunities for Africa to boost exports and industrialization, even as global protectionism rises.
Although the policy has existed in some form for a while, it has recently gained renewed attention. The key questions are what exactly is zero-tariff policy and how can Ethiopia benefit from it?
In global trade, countries often impose restrictions such as tariffs or quotas on imports to protect domestic producers from foreign competition. These measures raise the cost of imported goods, making them less competitive.
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“Removing tariffs reduces costs, allowing exports to enter foreign markets at lower prices and with greater competitiveness,” said Molla Alemayehu (PhD), a senior researcher at the Ethiopian Economics Association. “This can expand export volumes, strengthen market access, and ultimately stimulate economic growth.”
Molla notes the mechanism is similar to the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), under which Ethiopia enjoyed duty-free access to the US market until 2022, when it was delisted by the Joe Biden administration as a response to human rights violations allegedly committed by the government during the two-year northern war.
Last year, the central bank published a report detailing the extent of the impact on the Ethiopian economy, particularly the textile and leather industries, which relied heavily on duty-free access to the US market. This included the loss of more than 11,000 jobs across Ethiopia’s industrial parks, as well as an estimated revenue loss of close to USD 50 million.
Today, China’s zero-tariff policy presents Ethiopia with a significant opportunity, provided its products meet Chinese quality standards.
“To benefit now, Ethiopian producers must align with Chinese standards,” Molla said. Otherwise, the potential will remain untapped, as past experience with AGOA showed—Ethiopia struggled for years to fully utilize that program due to compliance issues.
Ethiopia’s export potential lies in agricultural goods: crops and raw materials that China does not produce in abundance. Processed foods and goods derived from agricultural raw materials are poised as key exports to the Chinese market. China has shown strong interest in Ethiopia’s meat value chain, even expressing demand for meat in Beijing, Molla said.
“If such opportunities are used systematically, the country will benefit much more,” the economist noted.
“Industrial products, however, are less competitive since China already produces them at scale and lower cost. Ethiopia’s comparative advantage lies in agriculture and agro-processing,” said Molla.
The trade policy is further bolstered by a currency swap agreement signed by Ethiopia and China in 2024, allowing trade in Birr and Chinese Yuan. Officials at the Ministry of Finance have highlighted the agreement as key to enhancing trade flexibility, increasing foreign direct investment (FDI), easing foreign exchange shortages, and strengthening Ethiopia’s economic partnerships.
This emerging opportunity allows direct trade in Yuan and Birr, bypassing the US dollar.
“This reduces dependency on dollar reserves, stabilizes local currency costs, and strengthens bilateral trade,” Molla observes.
Exporters have also pointed out the opportunities and challenges of China’s zero-tariff policy.
Kelifa Hussien is CEO of Allana Group Ethiopia, which runs two export abattoirs: Frigorifico Boran Foods PLC and Akseker Ethiopia Casing PLC. Both were established with a singular objective—to capitalize on Ethiopia’s vast livestock population.
Kelifa disclosed his company is not yet exporting meat but selling by-products (offal) to Vietnam and Hong Kong, from where they informally reach mainland China.
“We have been negotiating to export meat to China for six years,” he said.
Progress has been good, especially since 2023, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) raised the matter with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The process has now reached the stage of signing of a protocol agreement. In the first round, China is expected to allow the import of cooked, chilled, and semi-cooked meat from Ethiopia.
“They have concerns about disease. So the first stage will be semi-cooked. We are waiting for the agreement to be signed soon,” said Kelifa. “Everything on our side is complete. Chinese experts have visited our facilities and carried out inspections. Our experts have also visited China’s inspection system. Now it’s ready to materialize.”
Once signed, the next challenge will be price competitiveness. “Even if meat prices are high here, tariff removal will make our exports more competitive because Chinese tariffs previously had a big impact,” explained the CEO.
Thus far, local exporters had to compete against countries with highly developed livestock industries like Brazil, Argentina, New Zealand, and Australia.
“These countries have advanced production systems, which makes competition difficult. But with the preferential tariff treatment decided by China, Ethiopia can finally stand as a competitor. We expect that to happen,” Kelifa said.
Asked about timelines, he noted that it will be very soon. “We’re waiting only for legal formalities. They sent us requirements, we fulfilled them, and they confirmed; now it’s a matter of finalizing the permit.”
Yet fulfilling China’s export requirements remains a key hurdle. Kelifa pointed to strict health and quality standards.
“China, like other Asian countries, demands products from areas free of animal diseases. Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) is one example. Either we must be disease-free or provide certification. Given Ethiopia’s landscape and capacity, achieving disease-free status takes time and resources. That’s why reaching the Chinese market was not possible until now,” he said.
For now, the solution is the export of semi-cooked or boiled meat.
“This phased approach makes trade possible while addressing health concerns,” said Kelifa, who also leads the Ethiopian Meat Producers and Exporters Association, whose members primarily export their products to Middle Eastern countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain.
Offal products, especially goat offal, are shipped out to Vietnam and Hong Kong, while smaller volumes reach African countries such as Guinea, Nigeria, and Senegal.
Kelifa highlighted his company’s revenue growth. “It has been increasing year by year. In 2023/4, exports reached USD 87 million. The year after, revenue shot up to USD 120 million due to the foreign-currency regime change from managed floating to free-floating.”
He says business is booming this year, with USD 110 million worth of meat products shipped out with two months to go before the end of the financial year.
Regarding China’s market potential, Kelifa is cautiously optimistic. “China is one of the biggest meat markets in the world. But currently, they are allowing us to export only cooked meat. Cooked meat does not have as large a market as raw meat. Since this is new for us, we don’t expect huge volumes immediately. But it’s a market that will grow steadily,” he said.
Ethiopian exporters are eyeing China as a promising market for agricultural products, but the road to entry is far from simple. At the heart of the process lies the GAC certificate—a mandatory approval issued by China’s General Administration of Customs. Without it, no product can legally enter the Chinese market, said Addisu Alemayehu, general manager of Dabase Business Group PLC.
His company is engaged in the export of pulses, oilseeds, spices, herbs, aromatic plants, gums, resin and coffee which are directly sourced from smallholder farmers.
The certification process begins at the highest level with a government-to-government agreement. Once Ethiopia expresses interest in exporting a product, negotiations are held with Chinese authorities to determine how safety and quality will be assessed. These agreements are formalized through memorandums of understanding (MoUs), paving the way for Ethiopian goods to be considered. Pulses, oil seeds, and coffee have already cleared this hurdle. Today’ Ethiopian coffee is officially recognized and accepted in China—a milestone that exporters describe as a “great start.” Oilseeds are also part of the agreement, but other products, such as spices and herbs, remain excluded.
Addisu recalled that his company sent price samples to China. The packaging impressed officials, who even displayed the product on their office shelves. Yet admiration alone was not enough. Without inclusion in a government-level agreement, the certification process for spices remains lengthy—taking at least six months to a year—and costly, requiring around USD 20,000 to secure approval.
The cost presents a dilemma. If a private company invests in certification, the benefits extend beyond that single firm. Once Ethiopia obtains a GAC certificate number, it can be used by all exporters in the sector. In other words, one company’s investment opens the door for an entire industry.
“That’s not economically worthwhile. I’ve urged many governmental institutions to fix the problem,” said Addisu.
Recognizing this, industry lobby groups are stepping in. The Ethiopian Coffee Association and the Ethiopian Pulses, Oilseeds, and Spices Processors and Exporters Association have begun coordinating efforts, ensuring that certification benefits not simply individual businesses but the whole sector, he said.
The stakes are high. China, like Europe, enforces strict standards for imports. Navigating these requirements demands diplomacy, patience, and collective action.
“You can imagine how we can boost competitiveness if we use the zero-tariff strategy and solve the challenges,” Addisu stressed. But currently, no spice, aromatic, or herb products are exported to China because Ethiopia cannot meet the required standards. He points out that Chinese importers stand to benefit the most from the zero-tariff strategy, as lower prices helps demand for imported goods to surge.
Meanwhile, China has already grown to become the fourth-largest export destination for Ethiopian coffee. Just a few years ago, only a few thousand tons of coffee were shipped to China. Today export volumes sit near 50,000 tons annually. In 2024, China was Ethiopia’s major export destination, and Ethiopia garnered over USD 3.18 billion from exports to China.
Despite these opportunities, Ethiopia faces several challenges in the export sector. The first is high costs and limited competitiveness compared to other African producers, Molla said.
Limited access to capital and technology has also hampered producers. Without meeting Chinese requirements, Ethiopia risks missing out, as happened with AGOA, Molla argued.
To overcome these hurdles, Ethiopia must invest in knowledge transfer, technology adoption, and financial support mechanisms. A clear roadmap is needed to strengthen competitiveness and ensure producers can meet international standards, he suggests. If Ethiopia addresses inefficiencies and aligns with Chinese standards, the zero-tariff policy could open a major gateway for agri and agro-processed exports. This would not only benefit producers but also contribute significantly to Ethiopia’s broader economic growth.
Official data shows Ethiopia earned USD 8.3 billion in export revenue in the last fiscal year, which marked a 115.8 percent increase compared to the prior year. Figures from the Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration indicate the country generated USD 6.76 billion in export earnings in the first eight months of the current fiscal year.
Data from the Ethiopian Investment Commission (EIC) and the Chinese General Administration of Customs show that bilateral trade volume between the two countries reached USD 4.9 billion in 2024. China accounted for nearly 50 percent of all foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Ethiopia in 2023/24.
Ethiopia’s exports to China include coffee, oilseeds, and dried legumes, whereas China’s substantially more voluminous exports to Ethiopia include machinery, fertilizer, electronics, and vehicles.
