The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a program funded by the U.S. State Department, projected in January that the number of Ethiopians requiring food assistance could surge from approximately nine million to 16 million during the peak of the lean season in July. The warning points to worsening conditions in several regions where households face depleted food stocks, high prices, and limited coping capacity.
The projection comes as U.S. assistance patterns to Ethiopia undergo a significant shift. Data from ForeignAssistance.gov—the U.S. government’s flagship website for foreign aid tracking—illustrates a notable drop in funding between 2024 and 2025 across several critical sectors. Emergency response funding, the largest component, fell sharply from about USD760 million in 2024 to roughly USD 428 million in 2025. Health-related programs, including HIV/AIDS and basic health services, also recorded declines, alongside cuts to maternal and child health, education, and water and sanitation.
Food aid is one of the few areas showing a modest increase, rising from approximately USD 118 million to USD 133 million. However, analysts argue this uptick is unlikely to offset the broader contraction in humanitarian funding, especially as needs accelerate.
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The situation is further complicated by institutional changes in Washington. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), previously the primary agency responsible for aid distribution, was shuttered in July 2025. This has raised concerns among humanitarian actors regarding coordination gaps, delays, and a reduced capacity to respond at scale.
Experts warn that the convergence of rising needs and declining resources could deepen vulnerability in rural and conflict-affected areas. The lean season, which typically runs from June to September, is already a period of heightened risk; however, this year’s projections suggest a more severe scenario in which millions are expected to face emergency levels of food insecurity.
A sharp rise in hunger is set to strain Ethiopia’s already stretched humanitarian system, as projections warn of a steep increase in need while U.S. aid contracts across key sectors.
