The Moon, once a symbol of Cold War rivalry, is again the stage for a new contest, this time between the United States and China. The focus is no longer the equatorial plains where Apollo astronauts planted flags in 1969, but the deep, shadowed craters of the lunar south pole. At the heart of this rivalry lies Shackleton Crater, a permanently shadowed depression thought to hold sizable reserves of water ice. Whoever controls its resources may secure the key to a long-term lunar presence, and even to launching human missions to Mars from there.
A rivalry rekindled
The United States (US), through the Apollo program, still holds the historic distinction of landing humans on the Moon in 1969 and early 70s. In recent years, NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has mapped the surface with high precision, identifying promising polar sites for exploration. NASA’s new Artemis program now aims to return astronauts by the late 2020s, with the third mission, Artemis III, planned to land humans at the lunar south pole.
Artemis also includes a strong commercial side. Through NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, new companies are building landers and instruments. Firms like Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines will deliver science and technology payloads to the lunar surface.
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China, by contrast, has never sent humans to the Moon, but its robotic program has been notable. In 2019, Chang’e-4 landed the first rover on the Moon’s far side, an engineering feat no other nation has attempted. Its next mission, Chang’e-7 (planned for 2026), is set to target the lunar south pole with an orbiter, lander, rover, and even a small hopping probe. By 2030, China also plans to land humans at the Moon’s south pole.
Behind the science lies geopolitics. The US has committed an estimated USD 93 billion to Artemis through 2025, while China’s space budget is less transparent. Open-source estimates place its lunar program at USD three to eight billion (these numbers are likely higher due to opacity). The disparity in reported budgets masks the fact that China’s military-linked program may stretch resources further than its UScounterpart.
Other nations have also made remarkable contributions toward exploring the Moon. India’s Chandrayaan-3 became the first mission to land near the lunar south pole in 2023, while Japan’s SLIM lander achieved a pinpoint landing in 2024. Europe continues to contribute advanced robotics and technology through partnerships, and more nations are joining the race. Canada is developing a utility rover to be delivered by a lander, designed to haul cargo, manage logistics, and even assist with construction at the Moon’s south pole. These achievements are inspiring, but in scale and ambition, they still fall short of the integrated human-return programs of the US and China.
Why Shackleton Crater matters
Shackleton is a huge crater at the Moon’s south pole. It is about 21 kilometers wide and more than 4 kilometers deep. Craters like this were formed billions of years ago when space rocks hit the Moon with great force, leaving behind bowl-shaped holes. The bottom of Shackleton is so deep that sunlight never reaches it, keeping it frozen at below –200 °C. That extreme cold may have trapped water ice there for billions of years. Satellites flying around the Moon have picked up signs of hydrogen in this dark area, hinting at hidden ice. Meanwhile, the crater’s rim, or edge, gets sunlight almost all the time, which could be used to make solar power. Together, water ice and solar energy could one day help people build long-term settlements on the Moon.
This rare combination of shadow and light gives Shackleton significant value. The frozen water locked inside is not just for drinking or growing food; it can also be split into hydrogen and oxygen, the key ingredients of rocket fuel. In theory, astronauts could mine the ice, produce propellant, and use the Moon as a launching point for voyages farther into space. With the Moon’s gravity only one-sixth as strong as Earth’s, rockets would need far less energy to lift off, turning Shackleton into a possible gateway for humanity’s next great leap.
A launchpad to send humans to Mars?
One interesting idea is to use ice at Shackleton crater to make rocket fuel. Water can be split into hydrogen and oxygen, which provides fuel and air to breathe. Rockets could then launch from the Moon already fueled, avoiding the hard work of lifting everything from Earth. Using resources already on the Moon makes space travel easier. NASA’s Artemis program sees this as a first step toward sending humans to the Red Planet.
Lunar ambitions on a rocky path: Artemis vs. China
Both the US Artemis program and China’s lunar plans face big challenges in trying to set up a long-term base on the Moon. For Artemis, the idea of using the Moon as a refueling station is promising, but it would require building massive facilities to store hydrogen and oxygen safely, and the cost might outweigh the benefits for Mars missions. Some experts argue that a more practical option, at least for now, would be to build fuel and assembly stations in orbit near Earth. There, spacecraft could be put together, topped up with fuel, and prepared for deep-space travel.
China also has its own hurdles. It still needs powerful rockets, landers for both robots and people, and reliable habitats for astronauts on the lunar surface. Add to that political and economic pressures, plus global competition for lunar resources, and the road to a permanent presence on the Moon looks very tough.
Technical hurdles are only part of the picture.
For Artemis, potential budget cuts beyond 2026 and ongoing reviews of landers, transport vehicles, and surface habitats mean political and fiscal realities could reshape the program’s path. For China, sustaining funding, navigating geopolitical tensions, and scaling complex lunar operations may slow progress.
In both cases, reaching coveted sites like Shackleton Crater will demand a delicate balance of engineering, strategy, and policy, a reminder that lunar exploration is as much about decisions on Earth as human survival on the Moon.
Opportunities for African Students: Keeping Africa in the Game
African students have many ways to study the Moon. Opportunities include lunar science, lunar geology, and lunar engineering. In South Africa, SANSA and SARAO run satellite projects, astronomy programs, and radio telescopes. In Nigeria, the UN regional space center ARCSSTE-E, together with ISSE and AFIPS, offers training and research across West Africa. Ethiopia has SSGI and the Entoto Observatory, which provide programs in space science. Kenya and Ethiopia also take part in partnerships linked to China’s International Lunar Research Station (ILRS).
On the global side, NASA’s Artemis program, its Commercial Lunar Payload Services, the European Space Agency’s lunar projects, and China’s lunar missions all offer opportunities for international collaboration. These resources can help African students build careers as lunar experts and ensure the continent stays in the game.
Young Africans, reach for Shackleton Crater, keep the continent in the lunar journey!
Brook Lakew (PhD) is currently a Research Scientist at The University of Maryland, a NASA Emeritus and Senior Fellow at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the magazine. The author can be reached at: [email protected]
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