The Middle East is once again grappling with a deepening conflict, this time between Israel and Iran. The conflict between Israel and Iran, which began on June 13 when Israel launched a surprise airstrike on what it claimed were nuclear weapons facilities in Iran, with ripple effects drawing in the United States and destabilizing parts of the Middle East.
Israel seemingly employs a strategic campaign designed to undermine Iran’s annual energy exports, valued at billions of dollars. A notable aspect of this effort involved the colossal South Pars Gas Field, the world’s largest natural gas reservoir, which was forced to cease 12 million cubic meters of daily production entirely.
Tehran responded with a wave of retaliatory attacks, targeting Israeli military and intelligence infrastructure and assassinating key personnel, including senior security officials and nuclear scientists, according to Israeli defense sources.
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International media outlets report that the two-week conflict has killed at least 1,000 people and wounded over 3,500. Iranian casualties were significantly higher, with at least 974 killed and more than 3,400 injured, according to figures circulating in Iranian state media. Israel reported 24 deaths and around 1,000 injuries.
The conflict widened sharply when the United States, Israel’s closest military ally, launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. President Donald J. Trump confirmed that US B-2 bombers had carried out strikes on three key sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Writing on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump declared that Fordow—described as “the crown of Tehran’s nuclear program”—had been “obliterated” He warned Iranian leaders against any further action: “Remember, we have other targets.”
Iran later confirmed the Fordow strike and vowed retaliation. On June 22, just a day after the US attacks, Iranian forces fired ballistic missiles at American military bases in Qatar and Iraq. Iranian state media reported that Al Udeid Air Base—home to US Central Command operations—was among the targets.
Qatari officials confirmed that the base had been struck and called the missile attack a “violation” of sovereignty, signaling their intent to respond. Qatar temporarily closed its airspace, and both American and British citizens were urged to shelter in place. The Pentagon said there were no immediate reports of US casualties, though the situation remained volatile.
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office issued a statement announcing that the country had accepted a ceasefire proposal brokered by President Trump. The Israeli government said its objectives had been met: the destruction of key elements of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, and significant damage to Iranian military leadership and government infrastructure.
The statement indicates that the two primary existential threats posed by Iran, namely its nuclear weapons capabilities and ballistic missile systems, have been neutralized. Furthermore, the statement details that numerous military and governmental sites within Tehran have been targeted, including those affiliated with the Basij militia. Reports also suggest that a senior nuclear scientist was among those killed during the strikes.
“Israel thanks President Trump and the United States for their defense support and participation in eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat,” the statement added.
But within hours of the truce announcement, Iran launched another volley of missiles toward Israel. Iranian state-run Tasnim News Agency said the strikes came just minutes before the ceasefire was scheduled to take effect, killing at least four people.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz later confirmed the breach of the ceasefire, reporting that a missile had hit a residential building in Beersheba, killing eight. Katz said that the strikes will be met with a response,
As ceasefire efforts hold in the aftermath of a brief but devastating conflict between Israel and Iran, world leaders are calling for restraint—and warning of broader consequences.
Trump, who helped broker the ceasefire agreement, urged both nations to de-escalate, calling on Tehran and Jerusalem to honor their commitments.
Iran signaled conditional compliance, stating it would uphold the ceasefire if Israel refrained from further military action.
Ripple Effect on the Horn of Africa
The conflict has now expanded beyond the Middle East and involved actors like the United States. African countries find themselves at a crossroads, feeling the impacts not only on their economies but also on their political landscape, security dynamics, and regional alliances.
The global ramifications of this situation encompass both oil prices and security concerns, notably the potential for escalating tensions in the Red Sea. East African nations, given their reliance on this critical sea route for international trade, are reportedly expressing heightened apprehension. During this period of heightened tension, African countries appear to be contributing to international pleas for de-escalation, exhibiting a range of positions that suggest specific alignments.
Institutions such as the African Union have joined a chorus of nations urging an end to hostilities, citing the risk of a prolonged war that could further destabilize the Middle East and reverberate across the globe. The African Union was quick to respond, with its new Chairperson of the Commission, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, expressing ‘grave concern’ over reports of an Israeli airstrike on Iran and the ensuing escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.
Since the initial developments, various African countries have been vocal about their positions on the escalating Middle East tensions. Several nations have expressed concerns, with some seemingly siding with one party and others with the opposing side. Notable among these are South Africa, Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, Kenya, Nigeria, Algeria, Senegal, and Guinea-Bissau, all of whom have publicly stated their stances amidst the conflict between the two nations, which later drew in other international actors, including the United States. Specifically, Kenya and have aligned with Israel, while South Africa and Tunisia have firmly supported Iran.
Many are concerned about the spillover effects—particularly economic ones. Ethiopia, a nation whose economy is closely tied to Middle Eastern trade routes, is considered among the most vulnerable.
“Developing countries like Ethiopia cannot survive long without open access to international trade,” said Shimelis Araya (PhD), a macroeconomic analyst. “We don’t have strategic reserves of oil, food, or critical industrial inputs. Much of what we consume is imported from the Middle East.”
Ethiopia’s trade reliance on the region extends beyond oil. The Middle East is also a key market for Ethiopian exports—including fresh produce, textiles, and services. Any disruption to those channels could destabilize an already fragile economy.
Complicating matters further is the geopolitical context. Both Ethiopia and Iran are members of the expanded BRICS alliance, a trade bloc that promotes economic cooperation outside of Western financial systems. “This war could disrupt BRICS partnerships,” said Shimelis. “Ethiopia and Iran had the opportunity to trade using their own currencies. That prospect may now be delayed or derailed.”
He drew parallels to the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine, which triggered spikes in global food and fuel prices and deepened food insecurity across parts of Africa. “This conflict, too, will carry both direct and indirect costs,” he warned.
One of the most visible early impacts has been on Ethiopian Airlines, the continent’s largest and most profitable carrier. The airline suspended all flights between Addis Ababa and Tel Aviv from June 16 to 22, citing “operational considerations” amid escalating tensions. The suspension affects both inbound and outbound traffic.
“Ethiopian Airlines is a major pillar of the national economy,” Shimelis said. “Any disruption to its operations—especially in the Gulf and Levant regions—can sharply reduce Ethiopia’s foreign exchange income.”
The airline’s statement, posted across its social media channels, did not indicate whether flights would resume soon.
Given the uncertainty, Shimelis urged that the government must increase strategic reserves and prepare citizens—especially traders and consumers—for the likelihood of rising global prices,” he said.
Despite the nominal agreements to cease hostilities, both Israel and Iran maintain a posture of suspicion towards one another. As mutual distrust deepens, many observers fear that the Middle East’s latest conflagration could reignite with little warning—and with far-reaching consequences.
