In recent months, the Horn of Africa has once again found itself on the precipice of conflict as tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have escalated dangerously. The two nations, which share a long and complicated history, have been locked in a fragile peace since the signing of a deal in 2018, which ended a decades-long border war that claimed tens of thousands of lives. However, recent developments threaten to unravel this hard-won peace, risking not only regional stability but also the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. The imperative to de-escalate these tensions cannot be overstated. Diplomatic efforts, regional cooperation, and a commitment to dialogue must take precedence over saber-rattling and brinkmanship.
The roots of the current tensions lie in the unresolved issues stemming from the 1998-2000 border war and the subsequent failure to fully implement the Algiers Agreement. While the 2018 peace deal was hailed as a historic breakthrough, it was more of a symbolic gesture than a comprehensive resolution. Key issues, such as the demarcation of the border, the status of disputed territories, and the withdrawal of troops, remain unresolved. These lingering grievances have been exacerbated by recent political and military developments in the region, including Ethiopia’s internal conflicts and Eritrea’s perceived interference in Ethiopian affairs.
The brutal two-year civil war in the Tigray region of Ethiopia has further complicated the relationship between the two nations. Eritrea’s involvement in the conflict, allegedly in support of the Ethiopian federal government, has drawn international condemnation and reignited old animosities. Reports of Eritrean troops committing human rights abuses in Tigray have fueled resentment among the affected population while Eritrea’s government has grown increasingly wary of Ethiopia’s internal instability spilling across its borders. Landlocked Ethiopia’s stated ambition to gain access to the Red Sea, which it considers to be an existential matter, has contributed to heightening tensions despite its insistence that it has no desire to go to war to achieve this goal. Such volatile mix of unresolved historical grievances and contemporary geopolitical maneuvering has created a tinderbox that could ignite at any moment.
The consequences of a renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea would be catastrophic. Both nations are already grappling with severe economic challenges, food insecurity, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. A war would divert scarce resources away from critical development needs, exacerbate humanitarian crises, and displace countless civilians. Moreover, the conflict would likely draw in neighboring countries and destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, a region already plagued by insecurity, terrorism, and political instability. The ripple effects would be felt far beyond the region, potentially disrupting global trade routes and creating new refugee crises.
At the heart of any lasting resolution is the need for genuine political will on both sides to resolve differences through peaceful means only. Leaders in Ethiopia and Eritrea must put front and center the long-term interests of their people over short-term political gains. This calls for a willingness to compromise, address historical grievances, and build a foundation for peaceful coexistence. These measures need to be accompanied by confidence-building measures on the ground. Both Ethiopia and Eritrea should commit to withdrawing troops from border areas, refraining from provocative actions or lobbing vitriolic rhetoric at each other, and allowing independent monitors to oversee the implementation of any agreements. Humanitarian access to conflict-affected areas, particularly in Tigray, must be ensured to address the suffering of civilians and build trust between the parties.
Given the high stakes, the international community must act swiftly and decisively to prevent further escalation and hold accountable those who undermine stability. The African Union (AU), the United Nations (UN), and other regional organizations have a critical role to play in facilitating dialogue and mediating disputes. The AU, in particular, has a vested interest in maintaining peace and stability in the Horn of Africa, as it has long championed the principle of “African solutions to African problems.” The AU’s Peace and Security Council should convene an emergency session to address the crisis and propose concrete measures to de-escalate tensions. Similarly, the UN Security Council should consider emulating some countries that have issued statements urging both parties to exercise restraint and return to the negotiating table.
The people of Ethiopia and Eritrea deserve a future free from the shadow of war. They have endured decades of conflict, displacement, and hardship, and they yearn for peace, stability, and the opportunity to build better lives for themselves and their children. The current escalation of tensions is a stark reminder that peace is not a one-time achievement but an ongoing process that requires constant vigilance, commitment, and effort. The risks of inaction are too great, and the potential rewards of peace too significant to ignore. The time to act is now, before it is too late.
