The Horn of Africa is facing a dramatic resurgence of terrorist activity, as tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia continue to escalate. The breakdown in relations has emboldened militant groups, particularly Al-Shabaab, which has exploited the region’s security vacuum to mount increasingly brazen attacks. Al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-linked militant group based in Somalia, stepped up its operations over recent months, targeting civilians and key infrastructure with devastating precision.
In August 2024, a suicide bombing and armed assault in Mogadishu killed 32 people and injured more than 63. Less than two months later, an October 17 strike in the capital claimed seven lives and left six wounded. On November 3, the militants launched a mortar attack on Mogadishu’s airport, killing two African Union peacekeeping soldiers and injuring another.
The spike in violence marks a troubling reversal for Somalia, which had made strides in combating Al-Shabaab. In 2023, government forces reclaimed swathes of central Somalia, including the Hirshabelle and Galmudug regions. Yet, since March 2024, Al-Shabaab has regained key territories like Caad, Camaara, and Badaweyne, undermining recent gains.
RELATED POSTS
Experts attribute much of Al-Shabaab’s resurgence to the deteriorating cooperation between Ethiopia and Somalia, historically partners in counterterrorism efforts. The fallout is creating strategic openings for the group to bolster its operations.
Nationalism as a recruitment tool
David Shinn, a former US ambassador to Ethiopia and a specialist in African affairs, highlights how Ethiopia’s involvement in Somaliland is driving anti-Ethiopian sentiment. Ethiopia’s recent agreement with Somaliland, which seeks recognition as a sovereign state separate from Somalia, has enraged Somali nationalists. Al-Shabaab has deftly weaponized this controversy, portraying itself as a defender of Somalia’s territorial integrity.
“Al-Shabaab is using Ethiopia’s presence in Somaliland to stir nationalist fervor, recruit fighters, and expand its operations,” Shinn explains.
Omar Mahmood, Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa at the International Crisis Group, underscores the consequences of the rift. Without coordinated border security, Al-Shabaab has greater freedom to move its fighters and supplies, exploiting gaps where Ethiopian and Somali forces once held ground.
Al-Shabaab has been urging Somalis to “protect their land” against Ethiopian incursions, tapping into deep-seated grievances to frame its insurgency as a nationalist struggle. This narrative, Shinn notes, strengthens the group’s appeal among disaffected Somali youth and marginalized communities.
Meanwhile, Somalia faces another rising threat: the Islamic State (IS). While IS’s presence remains less dominant than Al-Shabaab’s, its activities are growing, particularly in Puntland, an autonomous region in eastern Somalia. Over the past year, IS has intensified its attacks, signaling an expansion of its operational reach.
Political fragmentation weakens Somalia’s Defense
Somalia’s fight against terrorism is not just hindered by regional tensions but is also crippled by internal political discord. Disputes between the Federal Government and autonomous regions, such as Puntland and Jubaland, have reached a critical point, jeopardizing national unity and security efforts.
The Federal Government’s recent push to amend the constitution to allow direct presidential elections has been met with staunch opposition from Puntland, which views the move as an infringement on its autonomy. In retaliation, Puntland severed ties with Mogadishu, halting critical cooperation on security measures. Similarly, Jubaland has rejected the constitutional proposal and cut ties with the central government, deepening the rift.
Shinn warns that this fragmentation plays directly into the hands of extremist groups like Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State (IS). “These groups thrive on instability,” Shinn explains, adding that political disunity undermines Somalia’s ability to mount a cohesive defense. The vacuum created by these divisions not only strengthens Al-Shabaab and IS within Somalia but also raises the risk of their expansion into Somali-populated areas in Ethiopia and Kenya, according to Shinn.
Shifting alliances, broader regional conflicts add to instability
The geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa is further complicating Somalia’s counter-terrorism efforts. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have frayed, while Eritrea has formed a new alliance with Egypt and Somalia. This evolving partnership contrasts sharply with Ethiopia’s growing ties with Somaliland, exacerbating regional divisions.
As part of the tripartite alliance, Egypt is reportedly deploying troops to Somalia, replacing Ethiopian forces stationed there under the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Shinn notes that this troop shift could escalate tensions. “If Egyptian forces replace Ethiopian troops near the border, Ethiopia may perceive this as encirclement by hostile powers,” he explains. Such a scenario could trigger a cycle of mistrust and conflict, further undermining regional security and providing extremist groups like Al-Shabaab with an opportunity to expand their influence.
The Horn of Africa is already beset by multiple conflicts that amplify instability. In Somaliland, ongoing clashes in Las Anod have heightened tensions, while Sudan’s protracted civil war has unleashed widespread violence and displacement. Although extremist groups have not yet capitalized on Sudan’s chaos, Shinn warns that this could change as the conflict persists, potentially opening a new frontier for groups like Al-Shabaab.
These overlapping crises divert resources and political attention away from counter-terrorism efforts. Mahmood points out that without a coordinated security strategy between Ethiopia and Somalia, security gaps will persist, enabling Al-Shabaab to consolidate power. He also highlights the potential for Somalia’s delayed state elections and the 2026 national elections to exacerbate political tensions, creating further distractions that extremist groups can exploit.
The stakes are high. With the Horn of Africa’s political landscape increasingly fractured, the region risks becoming a breeding ground for extremist activities. As Shinn cautions, “The worsening relations between Ethiopia and Somalia could spiral out of control, benefiting only the extremists.”
Financial uncertainty threatens Somalia’s fight against extremism
Somalia’s efforts to combat terrorism are facing a new challenge: dwindling financial support for the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). For years, ATMIS, backed by the European Union (EU) and the United States, has been instrumental in stabilizing the country and countering Al-Shabaab. However, with funding from these Western powers steadily declining, Somalia’s ability to sustain its counter-terrorism initiatives hangs in the balance.
This uncertainty has deepened with Donald Trump’s recent return to the US Presidency. Under the Department of Government Efficiency, headed by Elon Musk, the administration aims to cut federal spending by USD two trillion, according to reports. This initiative has raised concerns about potential reductions in US foreign aid, particularly to Africa, where Somalia relies heavily on American financial and technical support.
During his previous term, Trump’s “America First” agenda resulted in significant reductions in foreign aid to Africa. Analysts fear a similar approach could threaten financial and technical support, which remains vital to Somalia’s security operations.
In 2024, the US canceled USD 1.14 billion of Somalia’s debt and provided USD two billion in aid—funds that bolstered the Somali government’s ability to maintain governance and security. A rollback of such support, coupled with waning EU contributions, could leave Somalia dangerously exposed to Al-Shabaab’s escalating attacks.
Adding to the precarious situation are reports suggesting a possible arms partnership between Yemeni Houthi rebels and Al-Shabaab. While the two groups are ideologically distinct—Al-Shabaab aligned with al-Qaeda and the Houthis backed by Iran—experts argue that such a collaboration would likely be pragmatic rather than ideological. Shinn explains that their shared opposition to Western nations and regional allies like Israel could drive a transactional relationship.
Although conclusive evidence of formal ties is lacking, the prospect of Houthi-supplied weaponry reaching Al-Shabaab is alarming.
Mahmood notes that Yemen has long been a source of arms for Somali non-state actors. It is yet to be determined whether the recent reports indicate a formal alliance or ongoing trafficking patterns. However, it is crucial to note that emerging patterns of arms trafficking, whether through organized alliances or commercial channels, pose a significant risk of introducing advanced weaponry into Somalia, Mahmood explained. Such developments would pose a severe threat to the already fragile stability of the Horn of Africa.
A precarious future
As the Horn of Africa contends with rising extremism, political fragmentation, and reduced international support, Somalia and the Horn of Africa at large, stands at a critical juncture. The decline in Western financial aid, coupled with regional instability and the potential influx of arms from Yemen, could significantly weaken Somalia’s ability to combat Al-Shabaab and IS.
The stakes extend far beyond Somalia’s borders. A destabilized Somalia could further embolden extremist groups, spilling insecurity across the Horn and jeopardizing international efforts to curtail terrorism. With strained regional cooperation, overstretched security forces, and a lack of sustained financial and military backing, the fragile progress made in recent years risks unraveling, leaving a void that extremist forces are all too eager to fill and entrench their positions.
As Somalia and Ethiopia remain locked in an uneasy standoff, the question looms: Can either country afford to delay bridging their differences when the cost is a rapidly escalating terror threat?
The world’s response—or lack thereof—will shape not only Somalia’s future but also the broader trajectory of security across the region.
