Over the past decade, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has steadily expanded its influence in East Africa, particularly in Ethiopia. With investments spanning infrastructure projects and security cooperation, the UAE has carved out a significant presence in the region. Its strategy centers on securing vital resources, controlling ports and trade routes, and enhancing its diplomatic footprint. But as Ethiopia’s ties with the UAE deepen, so too does the risk of becoming embroiled in the UAE’s complex geopolitical entanglements in the Middle East.
The UAE’s Expanding Role
Since formal diplomatic relations were established in 2004, the UAE’s engagement with Ethiopia has grown significantly. This partnership took a decisive leap forward in 2018, shortly after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) came to power. In a show of early support, the UAE pledged USD three billion in aid and investments, including a crucial USD one billion deposit into Ethiopia’s central bank to stabilize its currency during a period of economic turmoil.
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This lifeline was essential for Ethiopia, which has grappled with severe economic difficulties, including dwindling foreign currency reserves and strained access to traditional lenders like China, the US, and international financial institutions. The UAE’s support filled a critical gap, positioning it as one of the few nations willing to provide substantial financial backing. Most recently, in July 2024, the two nations signed a currency swap agreement worth AED three billion (about 46 billion birr), offering a fresh infusion of foreign currency to ease Ethiopia’s ongoing crisis.
The UAE’s involvement goes beyond financial aid. Through its logistics giant DP World, it has invested USD one billion to enhance Ethiopia’s trade connectivity by building supply chain infrastructure linked to the Berbera port in Somaliland, a move that promises to bolster Ethiopia’s access to global markets. Beyond trade, the UAE is also behind ambitious projects like the Chaka Project—a multi-billion-dollar palace being constructed in Addis Ababa.
Military Backing and Strategic Alignment
The UAE’s influence in Ethiopia extends well into the military realm. During Ethiopia’s conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which erupted in November 2020, reports surfaced that the UAE supplied the Ethiopian government with drones and other military equipment. An air bridge was established to facilitate this support, underscoring the UAE’s strategic significance to Ethiopia’s defense operations.
Beyond arms, the UAE has played a critical role in shaping Ethiopia’s security apparatus. Since 2018, it has provided training to the Republican Guard, tasked with protecting the Prime Minister and top officials. This military collaboration further highlights the deepening ties between the two nations, with Ethiopia increasingly reliant on the UAE for security.
The Cost of Dependence
At the heart of Ethiopia’s growing bond with the UAE lies PM Abiy’s close personal rapport with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, the UAE’s President. This relationship transcends typical diplomatic or economic cooperation, signaling a deeper bond that may increasingly tether Ethiopia to the UAE’s strategic interests.
While the partnership has provided Ethiopia with immediate economic relief and military aid, it also raises critical question2018s about the long-term consequences. With fewer international partners willing to extend support, Ethiopia’s growing reliance on the UAE could erode its capacity to pursue an independent foreign policy. As Ethiopia increasingly turns to the UAE, it risks aligning itself more closely with the UAE’s broader geopolitical ambitions, which could complicate its standing in the region and beyond.
Arman Sidhu, a Middle East geopolitics researcher based in Phoenix, Arizona, highlights three areas where the UAE’s influence in Ethiopia is particularly strong: agriculture, renewable energy, and trade infrastructure. He explains that Ethiopia’s vast agricultural land is a key interest for the UAE, which has limited arable land of its own. The UAE views Ethiopia’s farmland as crucial for securing its food supplies.
Sidhu also points to renewable energy as a major focus. The UAE is actively pursuing its USD 4.5 billion Clean Energy Initiative, and Ethiopia offers significant potential for solar and wind energy projects. This aligns with the UAE’s long-term strategy to expand its green energy investments.
Ethiopia’s strategic location near the Red Sea is another factor driving Emirati interest. Sidhu argues that Ethiopia’s trade infrastructure is vital to the UAE’s ambitions, particularly in securing trade routes and enhancing regional logistics.
The Perils of Geopolitical Entanglement
As Ethiopia’s relationship with the UAE deepens, the risk of being caught in the its complex rivalries across the Middle East becomes more acute.
The UAE is engaged in power struggles with key regional players like Iran, Turkey, and Qatar, while navigating a delicate and often contentious relationship with Saudi Arabia. These tensions have flared into proxy wars, notably in Yemen and Sudan, where regional alliances shift rapidly.
Sidhu hopes Ethiopia will maintain its neutrality in Middle Eastern geopolitical rivalries. However, he notes that the UAE’s military strategy has shifted significantly over the last decade, especially in Africa. Sidhu points out that the UAE has deployed military assets across the continent and has a vested interest in the outcomes of conflicts in Sudan, Libya, and even the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Sidhu also highlights the UAE’s involvement in Ethiopia’s internal conflict, which underscores the growing military relationship between the two countries. According to Sidhu, the UAE may seek further concessions from Ethiopia in the future. These could include the establishment of a “flexible outpost” for military operations in Ethiopia and possibly diplomatic support from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in mediating conflicts where the UAE has a direct interest.
Historically, Ethiopia has sought to maintain a neutral stance in Middle Eastern conflicts. For instance, during the Gulf crisis of 2017, Ethiopia refrained from siding with either the Saudi Arabia-UAE bloc or Qatar. But as the UAE’s influence within Ethiopia grows, this neutrality could be increasingly difficult to sustain. Pressure to back the UAE’s geopolitical positions may not only strain Ethiopia’s relationships with other Middle Eastern nations but could also embroil it in broader regional disputes.
The UAE’s involvement in Sudan is a stark reminder of the potential dangers of entanglement. After the fall of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in 2019, the UAE ramped up its military and financial support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), exacerbating tensions and fueling instability. Sudan’s internal conflict, with the UAE playing a significant role, is a cautionary tale for Ethiopia, as similar patterns could emerge if Ethiopia is drawn into the UAE’s regional agenda.
A parallel can be seen in Yemen, where the UAE and Saudi Arabia, despite being nominal allies, have backed opposing sides in the civil war. While Saudi Arabia supports Yemen’s government, the UAE has thrown its weight behind the Southern Transitional Council, a separatist faction. These divergent interests have sparked tensions between the two Gulf powers, revealing how quickly regional alliances can shift and escalate into open conflicts. The lessons gleaned from Yemen and Sudan show how rivalries can easily spill into neighboring countries, a risk Ethiopia may face as it grows more dependent on UAE support.
Economic Struggles and Limited Options
Ethiopia’s increasing reliance on the UAE is, in part, a byproduct of its deepening economic crisis. Saddled with high levels of debt, dwindling foreign currency reserves, and limited access to international loans, Ethiopia has been left with few alternatives. Efforts to secure debt relief and new financing have largely fallen short. Traditional partners like China have scaled back their lending, while the US and Europe have curtailed support due to concerns over human rights abuses and ongoing conflicts, notably the war in Tigray.
This scarcity of financial lifelines has left Ethiopia vulnerable to external influence. The UAE, with its vast resources, has become one of the few countries willing to offer aid in Ethiopia’s time of need.
But this reliance comes at a cost.
The more Ethiopia depends on the UAE, the more it risks losing the autonomy to shape its own foreign policy. There is a growing danger that Ethiopia may be compelled to align itself with the UAE’s broader geopolitical ambitions, particularly as the UAE’s involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts intensifies.
While the immediate benefits of financial aid and military support are evident, Ethiopia’s increasing dependence on the UAE could narrow its room for maneuver. Should Ethiopia be drawn into these rivalries—either directly or as a bystander—it risks compromising its political independence, becoming yet another stage for the region’s power struggles.
