Since June 18, Kenya has been experiencing unrest as mostly young protesters took to the streets demanding a reversal of a bill that introduced taxes on commodities. On Tuesday, June 25, the Gen-Z protests snow balled as security forces fired live bullets killing at least half a dozen. The angry protesters on their part set parts of the Kenyan Parliament and City Hall in Nairobi on fire. Police was later joined by the army to quell the protests that erupted even at the hometown of President William Ruto, who came to power on promises that he would serve as “the hustler” to ameliorate economic pains faced by the common people.
On Tuesday, Parliament endorsed the tax bill and all hell broke lose, with Ruto describing the protests as treasonous. A country that has been trying hard to position itself as beacon of democracy and stability in the Eastern Africa region slid, at least for the moment. Seen at a regional scale, the event can give a lesson that the region remains highly precarious and volatile.
These recent events, might not reverse Kenya’s latest diplomatic gains, though.
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President William Ruto’s recent state visit to the United States—the first by an African leader in 16 years—is a testament to Kenya’s growing influence and geopolitical importance amid an intensifying rivalry between the US and Europe on one side and China and Russia on the other.
The visit represents a new era of leadership in the Horn of Africa, as Ethiopia’s long-dominant role is overshadowed by Kenya’s growing influence as the diplomatic powerhouse in the region. This shift in regional power dynamics is directly linked to the
Historically, Ethiopia has been a cornerstone of geopolitical strategy in the Horn of Africa.
The last state visit from an Ethiopian leader to the US was by Emperor Haile Selassie I in 1969. At the time, Ethiopia was a key geopolitical partner for the US in the Red Sea region, helping to counter Soviet influence during the Cold War.
This changed after the Derg regime realigned itself with the USSR. A few decades later, Ethiopia once again found itself a close US ally, particularly in light of the EPRDF’s efforts in the war against terrorism following the events of 9/11.
Yet, more recent global and internal changes have reduced Ethiopia’s geopolitical importance. Ethiopia is now landlocked, unstable, and its regional diplomatic influence has diminished owing to internal conflicts and political strife.
Ethiopia’s contribution to international peacekeeping efforts, once a hallmark of its regional role, is now being matched by Kenya and Rwanda. This shift further reduces Ethiopia’s historical dominance in exporting peacekeeping forces.
In contrast, Kenya’s relatively stable political environment and location have significantly enhanced its regional and global standing. President Ruto’s state visit underscores Nairobi’s newfound strategic importance in the global arena.
Kenya’s geographic location on the eastern coast of Africa along the Indian Ocean makes it a pivotal player in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. The Indian Ocean is a critical maritime corridor for global trade, energy supplies, and military logistics. By partnering with Kenya, the US can enhance maritime security and ensure the free flow of commerce through this vital region, countering China’s expanding influence and military presence in the region.
On the other hand, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has seen significant investments in infrastructure projects across Africa, including Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway and the Nairobi Expressway. These projects increase China’s leverage in the region, potentially challenging US interests.
Washington and its allies hope that enhancing Kenya’s port facilities and maritime infrastructure can also help counter China’s strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean.
Ruto’s visit emphasized security cooperation, with Kenya playing a crucial role in counterterrorism efforts against Al-Shabaab, which could prove essential in maintaining regional stability in the Horn of Africa and beyond. The country has been a frontline state in the fight against Al-Shabaab and other extremist groups, providing a strategic base for US operations and intelligence gathering.
Washington supports Kenya through military equipment, intelligence, and potentially designating Kenya as a major non-NATO ally. Kenya’s commitment to sending police officers to Haiti to combat gang violence further demonstrates its broader security cooperation with the West.
The Horn of Africa is a hotspot for security issues, including terrorism and piracy. Kenya’s collaboration with the US in counterterrorism and regional security initiatives solidifies its position as a crucial partner for Western countries in maintaining stability in the region. This aspect of the relationship could diminish Ethiopia’s role, especially given its internal security challenges.
The discussions between Joe Biden and William Ruto also focused on enhancing trade and investment through initiatives like the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) and the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA), aiming to boost bilateral trade and attract US firms to Kenya.
The US. is competing with China and Russia for influence in key regions. Kenya, with its strategic location and economic potential, is crucial in this competition. Russia’s increasing engagement in Africa, through military cooperation and economic investments, poses a challenge to US interests.
Kenya’s strategic location at the crossroads of major sea trade routes have allowed it to leverage its geographical advantages and establish itself as a key player in the Horn of Africa’s economy. Kenya has become a crucial hub for regional commerce and transportation to connect countries without access to the sea including Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda, as well as Rwanda and Burundi.
Fitihawok Yewondwosen, a journalist and commentator on geopolitics, considers Kenya’s qualitative economic growth highly important for the increase of its diplomatic power and circle of influence in the region.
“Kenyas is far behind Ethiopia in terms of GDP but its qualitative economic growth is undeniably greater than any east African country. It has strong competitiveness in terms of tourism, manufacturing, ICT and telecom industries without dependence on the mining sector,” said the commentator. “Ethiopia still has the upper hand in GDP and military strength but it is struggling to maintain peace and stability internally. This event opened a window of opportunity for Kenya.”
However, Abel Abate, a keen follower of Horn politics and fellow at Chatham House, argues Kenya’s increasing dominance over East Africa may not be an indicator of its growth in economy or military. He posits it is rather the result of the decline witnessed in other countries in the region that has allowed Kenya to move into the forefront.
“Currently, Kenya is the most stable and politically predictable nation in relative terms in the eastern Africa region. Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia are all fragile countries occupied with unsettled conflicts,” said Abel.
He observes the recent diplomatic turmoil spurred by the signing of an MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland has contributed to Addis Ababa’s isolation from continental and international affairs.
Abel argues that any government can make a blunder, but “there are no free passes for those who are viewed by the international community as though they are ailing in all aspects. The chaos Ethiopia has been submerged in in recent years has made it vulnerable at both the regional and international levels.”
Kenya is one of the few African nations that have been free from the clutches of war since gaining independence from European colonists. A strong and stable political system, a history of peaceful transitions of power not too common in the region, and a commitment to democratic governance have all contributed to Kenya’s growing influence. The resulting stability makes Kenya an attractive destination for foreign investment and a reliable partner for regional cooperation.
It was Kenya who brokered a peace for the two-year northern Ethiopian war during Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidency.
Furthermore, Kenya’s leadership under the new President William Ruto has been characterized by a proactive and forward-thinking approach to regional and international affairs. Ruto has been instrumental in fostering regional cooperation and promoting peace and security in the Horn of Africa. He was the one who tried to negotiate dialogue between Somalia and Ethiopia when they entered into a diplomatic rift after the Ethio-Somaliland port deal. His leadership has helped to build trust and confidence among regional partners, solidifying Kenya’s position as a leader in the region.
Fitihawok observes the assets Kenya accumulates in democracy through peaceful election, power transfer, freedom of press and democratic institutions, in addition with the lengthy spell of harmony since independence has made it an ideal trading and security partner.
“During the ‘New Global Financing Pact’ summit in Paris in June 2023, President Ruto was among the outspoken African leaders who courageously called for the urgent need to change the global financial architecture to solve the developing world’s socio economic burdens. Recently, during the African Development Bank summit hosted in Nairobi, he also critically raised the need to establish for Africa its own fair economic and financial rating system to replace the role of Moody and Fitch. He is also one of the few African leaders able to secure debt restructuring and funding from the likes of the IMF,” said Fitihawok.
He pointed out Ruto’s state visit to the US is a rare thing for African leaders. He joins a short list of names including Emperor Haile Selassie I, John Kufuor of Ghana, Nelson Mandela, and Moi Kibaki of Kenya.
Kenya is undoubtedly the west’s new darling in the Horn and Ruto continues to make frequent travels to western nations. He is a regular guest at gatherings such as the G7 summit and others. How long Nairobi will maintain its elevated status in the eyes of the west, however, remains a question for analysts.
Some see Ethiopia’s rift with the US and Europe as an opportunity to forge new diplomatic, political, and economic ties with eastern powers like China, Russia, and the Gulf States as it looks for ways to sustain its regional sphere of influence.
However, Abel, the analyst, contends differently.
“Ethiopia can’t sustain itself even if it maintains good relations and integration with both the east and the west. China follows trade flows, so it can’t be fully considered an eastern superpower. Russia and other eastern superpowers, if there are any, provide limited partnership particularly in morale and debt. Developing nations like Ethiopia are mostly dependent on the provision of humanitarian, development and financial aid obtained from western superpowers. Ethiopia can’t pick one over the other, instead [the relations] must be complementary for the sustainability of its growth. Ethiopia isn’t guaranteed to lift itself out of poverty even if it secures good ties with both the east and west. After all, nobody wants to be friends with a country that cannot maintain its internal peace and stability.”
Abel sees Ethiopia must prioritize domestic issues before anything else.
“We should make our politics correct before projecting peace towards the region. We should also have clearly articulated principles for foreign relations. The need to pay close attention to maintaining economic growth pace is also important,” he said.
