The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa is in constant flux, with shifting alliances and heightened tensions testing the region’s stability. The latest flashpoint lies in the semi-autonomous Puntland region of Somalia, where a series of events have reverberated across the broader Somalia-Ethiopia relationship.
The tensions began to simmer when Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the breakaway region of Somaliland in January, granting Ethiopia a 20-kilometer coastline on the Gulf of Aden in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. This move, viewed by Mogadishu as a violation of its territorial integrity, has further strained the delicate Somalia-Ethiopia rapport.
The situation escalated when a delegation from Puntland recently visited Addis Ababa, prompting the Somali government to take the unprecedented step of severing all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia. Analysts warn that this decision could jeopardize regional security, as the aftershocks of such a move remain unpredictable.
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Domestic turmoil
At home, the Puntland question has become a headache for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration. The latest dispute over Puntland’s alleged “rebellious moves” to break away from the federal government of Somalia comes just three months after Somalia and Somaliland’s political rift.
Now, a constitutional amendment passed a month ago threatens to split the country once more.
Puntland, which strongly opposed the amendment, has announced that it no longer recognizes the authority of the Mogadishu government. The semi-autonomous state withdrew from the federal system, declaring that it will govern itself independently until credible constitutional amendments are approved by a nationwide referendum.
Founded during Somalia’s civil war in the 1990s, Puntland is one of the wealthiest and autonomous member states of the Somali federation. Located north east of Somalia, puntland has a population of estimated five million- the largest of any state.
Last year, Puntland held one of the country’s most democratically advanced statewide direct elections, becoming the second state to do so after the breakaway region of Somaliland. This latest move towards greater autonomy, however, has been viewed by Mogadishu as illegal and has become another source of tension with its neighbor, Ethiopia.
According to the 2012 constitution, Somalia is divided into seven states: Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, SSC Khatumo, Puntland, Somaliland, and South West regions. Prior to the transitional constitution, Somaliland proclaimed its own constitution in 2001 and claimed statehood.
However, no country has recognized Somaliland’s self-proclaimed independence, and Somalia continues to consider the region as its sovereign territory.
Ismael Burgabo, a correspondent for a Hargeisa-based broadcaster, shed light on the regional tensions surrounding the Puntland State of Somalia, attributing them to a combination of regional and clan power struggles within Somali politics.
“The reason why Puntlanders reject the amendment is because they fear losing their regional power,” explains Burgabo. “Previously, clans from Puntland held significant influence in the federal government through the 4.5 power-sharing formula.”
He says that the four major clans typically dominated government offices and parliament, leaving a smaller share for distribution among minority groups. Among these dominant clans, the Hawiye have mostly controlled the presidential seat, while the Darods have predominantly occupied the Prime Minister’s position.
“Given that the Prime Minister’s office is currently held by HamzaAbdi Bare from Ogadenclan, politicians from Majerti and Merihanclans of Puntland region have expressed dissatisfaction and have longed for their own representative,” he said.
The 4.5 power distribution system, introduced in 1997, remains a significant factor in Somalia’s political landscape. This formula allocates seats and political positions based on the size and representation of different clans in the country. Despite the implementation of the Somali Provisional Constitution in 2012, which aimed to replace the power-sharing formula, the system continues to determine clan representation in the federal government.
Burgabo claims that when Mohamud came to power he received substantial support from Puntland, with the expectation that he would reform the power-sharing arrangement. “Puntland’s president himself supported Mohamud, hoping to secure a prominent position, potentially even the prime ministerial role.”
However, he says that “when Somaliland separately pursued independence by signing the MoU with Ethiopia, it served as a catalyst for Puntland to consider a similar path. The subsequent constitutional amendment provided an immediate cause for Puntland to break away from the federal government.”
In addition to concerns about power distribution, Puntland authorities have expressed concern that the amendment could disrupt the checks and balances among institutions. They believe that the amendment was influenced directly by the President and criticize both its speed and the lack of their consent in the process.
During an interview with Al Jazeera, Puntland’s Agriculture Minister, Mohamed Abdulqadir, criticized the hurried nature of the amendment and its failure to address the needs of his region. He highlighted that numerous provisions, covering chapters in the transitional constitution, were amended without sufficient consultation or involvement from Puntland.
“We all agreed to amend the provisions that cover four chapters in the transitional constitution. But the federal government separately dominated the process,” the Minister said. According to him, the issues of the capital city, resource and finance distribution, tax and customs collection, power division, and security organ were amended separately by the federal government.
Analysts believe the controversy surrounding the amendment between Puntland and the Somalia government has further complicated the relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia, worsening their already strained ties.
Good neighbor, bad neighbor
In a surprising turn of events, Puntland made a diplomatic move without prior notice to Somalia on April 3rd, as it sent a delegation to Ethiopia.
Led by Finance Minister Mohamed Farah Mohamed, the Puntland delegation engaged in discussions with Ethiopian foreign minister officials, including State Minister Ambassador Mesganu Arega, to explore opportunities for strengthening bilateral relations, particularly in the areas of trade and joint infrastructure projects.
This visit marked the first foreign visit undertaking by the new Puntland administration since assuming office in February 2024, as reported by local media sources in Garowe.
However, Somalia’s government swiftly reacted by expelling Ethiopian diplomats from Mogadishu and ordering the closure of consulates. In response, Puntland’s Information Minister, Mohamud Dirir, asserted that Somalia had no authority to close Ethiopia’s consulate in Garowe, emphasizing Puntland’s autonomy.
During his Eid holiday message on April 10, President of Somalia expressed his country’s unwavering commitment to safeguarding its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
He urged Ethiopia to respect these principles, adding, “If they do not want us, we do not want them. We will not be intimidated or coerced into compromising our rights.” The President also condemned Puntland’s actions and accused Ethiopia of undermining Somalia’s sovereignty by engaging with Puntland.
Puntland officials claim the constitutional amendment that approved by Somalia parliament recently risked escalating violence in Somalia, a country already grappling with insecurity due to the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabaab group. In addition to this internal threat, recent attacks in the Gulf of Aden by Yemeni Houthi groups have posed a challenge to the strategically vital Bab el Mandeb trade route.
Who gains what?
Analyzing the situation, it becomes apparent that both Puntland and Ethiopia have their own interests at stake. Puntland faces a severe shortage of energy and electricity, making it imperative to seek reliable power sources. Ethiopia, with its surplus electricity production and willingness to export energy to neighboring countries, presents an opportunity for Puntland to address its energy deficit by accessing Ethiopia’s electricity resources.
On the other hand, Ethiopia’s landlocked status has long influenced its foreign policy and regional engagements. Consequently, the Port of Bosaso in Puntland holds significant potential as a strategic asset for Ethiopia, offering an alternative access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
The maritime disruptions caused by Houthi attacks in northern Yemen have severely impacted ports in the region, including Djibouti and Berbera, which are situated in close proximity to the affected areas.
In contrast, Bosaso remains relatively distant from these disturbances, making it a safer and more secure option for maritime trade.
Recognizing this advantage, Ethiopia may view Puntland as an attractive alternative for ensuring uninterrupted trade flows, mitigating the risks associated with the current challenges in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Utilizing the Port of Bosaso would also reduce Ethiopia’s dependence on existing trade routes, such as those through Djibouti, Somaliland and Kenya. With the Port of Bosaso operated by Emirati Company DP World, there exists a strategic convergence with DP World’s involvement in both Bosaso and the Berbera Port in Somaliland, which Ethiopia intends to utilize.
This convergence suggests that the UAE may play a facilitating role in granting Ethiopia access to ports in both Somaliland and Puntland, further cementing the significance of the Port of Bosaso in Ethiopia’s regional trade ambitions.
Ethiopia’s involvement with Puntland, situated within the broader context of regional power dynamics, also reveals an intricate interplay of interests.
With ongoing tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, further exacerbated by Somalia’s recent defense agreement with Turkey, Ethiopia may consider Puntland as a potential ally to restore equilibrium in the region. Strengthening ties with Puntland not only offers Ethiopia access to strategic resources and routes but also presents an opportunity to exert influence over Somalia’s internal affairs.
While Puntland’s official stance on seeking international recognition as an independent state remains undeclared, the region’s aspirations for independence cannot be overlooked. Recent developments such as Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland, underscore the significance of Puntland’s relationship with Ethiopia.
Considering Ethiopia’s willingness to engage with Somaliland, a strategic opportunity arises for Puntland to leverage its relationship with Ethiopia to advance its aspirations for greater autonomy and recognition.
In light of these dynamics, Puntland could seek to fortify its bond with Ethiopia to pursue a similar agreement and garner support from neighboring countries. Puntland’s declaration of functioning as a quasi-independent state amidst disputes over Somali constitutional changes further highlights its potential trajectory.
However, the constitutional amendment process poses a significant threat to Puntland’s power and autonomy. Puntland vehemently opposes the constitutional changes from Mogadishu, viewing them as encroachments on its authority and tribal interests.
Puntland took action by declaring its withdrawal from Somalia’s federal system and asserting its intention to govern itself independently until the constitutional amendments undergo a nationwide referendum. Consequently, Puntland’s relationship with the central government in Mogadishu has ruptured, leading to a withdrawal of recognition.
In this context, Ethiopia can emerge as a strategic ally to Puntland counterbalance and resist centralization initiatives imposed by Mogadishu.
Navigating regional turbulence
The Horn of Africa’s politically tumultuous landscape, compounded by environmental crises, is witnessing heightened rivalry between Somalia and Ethiopia, which many believe will further complicate the regional situation.
Amid the mounting diplomatic row between the two nations, hopes of peace talks have emerged following Mahmud’s recent visit to Nairobi. Multiple reports indicate Kenya’s role in facilitating peace negotiations between Somalia and Ethiopia.
A source from the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) also recently confirmed that leaders from Kenya and Djibouti are brokering peace between Ethiopia and Somalia.
Speaking anonymously, a source disclosed that President Ismail Omar Guelleh and his Kenyan counterpart, President William Ruto, are facilitating “highly confidential” talks between Ethiopia and Somalia, potentially taking place in Nairobi in the near future.
Some mainstream media outlets have even reported that Kenya has proposed a new port deal between Ethiopia and Somalia. According to these reports, IGAD will play a role in formulating the agreement and facilitating a face-to-face meeting between the leaders of both countries.
Burgabobelieves that the controversy surrounding Puntland may give Ethiopia an advantage in exerting additional influence over the Somali federal government, which has been placing blame and mounting geopolitical pressure on Addis Ababa.
However, he cautions that “using such advantage over Somalia based on the latest controversy with Puntland doesn’t secure the long-term geopolitical interests of Ethiopia.”
As Ethiopia navigates the complex regional dynamics, the future of its engagement with Puntland and the broader relationships within the Horn of Africa remain uncertain, with both opportunities and challenges on the horizon.
