Ethiopia’s Amhara Regional State is embroiled in one of the deadliest conflicts in recent history, second only to the devastating two-year war in Tigray region. While the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended the brutal War, it sparked new tensions in Amhara that have led to over a year of violent clashes.
The Pretoria deal brought a fragile ceasefire to Tigray but left underlying political issues unresolved, stoking tensions in Amhara. When the federal government moved to disband regionalspecial forces like, it was met with fierce resistance and fueled suspicions of overreach. Advocates argued this threatened Amhara security and showed the region’s concerns were still being disregarded—an immediate trigger for the current conflict between the popular force, Fano, and federal forces.
Barely had the ink dried on the Pretoria agreement when violence erupted again in Amhara. Dissatisfied with the Pretoria pact’s failure to address disputed territories and Amhara grievances, Fano engaged in a deadly power struggle with federal forces that persists after more than twelve months.
Yet the deeper roots of this new phase of conflict long predate the first shots.
Historical marginalization grievances within the federal system have festered amid the killing and displacement of Amhara civilians—acts that exacerbated regional tensions.
Analysts also point to ethnic skirmishes in Oromia resulting in the deaths and displacement of Amhara’s as a key underlying cause. Combined with past land conflicts and rising political strains, these cast a shadow over Ethiopia’s fragile peace.
Since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) took office, conflict-driven internal displacement in Ethiopia has gripped the nation. Millions have been forcibly uprooted from homes across the country, notably in Oromia, due to ethnicity according to a jointInternal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) and Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID), report. Strikingly, the majority displaced were Amhara, primarily from generations-old settlements in Oromia where brutal violence reached unprecedented levels.
In recent years, thousands of homes were demolished on Addis Ababa’s outskirts under the guise of irregular construction. This displaced tens of thousands and disproportionately impacted people of Amhara descent. Likewise, travelers report growing difficulty entering the capital and facing harassment at Oromia checkpoints—delays which have undermined urgent medical care.
Border demarcation and identity disputes have exacerbated long-simmering tensions in Amhara. Contested areas like Wolkait, Telemt, Tegede, SetitHumera, and Raya — known for their fertile lands and strategic international border positions — have been a flashpoint.
Historically part of Amhara until 1991, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) relocated these areas under Tigray’s administration, contesting their native Amhara identity. This fueled claims of forced assimilation and human rights abuses, including killings and demographic changes.
Though Amhara resumed control following the war, official recognition and the sensitive question of these populations’ identities remain unresolved. Various groups advocate different solutions to these disputed territories at the heart of Amhara’s claims.
Last year’s fertilizer shortages exacerbated farmers’ frustrations, fueling mass protests across Amhara over access to critical resources and livelihood pressures.
Grievances came to a head in April 2023 as Fano clashed with federal forces. The subsequent state of emergency and arrests of Amhara politicians and journalists on charges of supporting violence against the state further eroded trust and stoked public outrage.
Despite extensions of the emergency in February 2024, violence has persisted due to unaddressed root causes, as analysts, diplomats and governments attest, is key to long-term peace.
According to Adem Kassie (PhD), a constitutional lawyer and governance expert based in The Hague, Netherlands, the anger among the Amhara has evolved beyond requests for protection from ethnic violence, murder, and relocation. While the early demonstrations and mobilization by Fano focused on protecting the Amhara ethnic people, the current conflict revolves around a deeper issue: political representation.
Amhara nationalists argue that the narratives entrenched in the country’s existing constitution subject the Amharas to “ethnic cleansing” and “genocide.” They also contend that the current ethnic-based federal structures have disenfranchised and disadvantaged millions of Amharas living outside of the Amhara regional state.
Federal constitutions guarantee equal rights to both the majority and minority across the country. In this regard, Amhara Regional constitutions have granted equal rights to both the majority and minorities, including the Awi, WagjHimra, and Oromo. However, Amhara politicians argue that Amhara ethnic groups in other regions of the country are not treated equally and similarly.
Abebaw Desalew, a member of parliament, emphasized the absence of protection for ethnic Amharas. This has left many Amharas living outside the regional state, unprotected and marginalized. The current situation in Amhara highlights the urgent need for meaningful representation in the country’s politics and equitable protection.
Public dissatisfaction with the current regional administration is on the rise, driven by a perceived lack of legitimacy and responsiveness to the needs of the people. The public increasingly views the regional administration as outdated and unrepresentative, eroding its legitimacy. This sentiment extends beyond the Fano movement and encompasses a wider portion of the population. This shifting dynamic demands immediate attention as a pressing concern, according to Adem, who emphasized the importance of a political solution.
Hone Mandefro, a doctoral candidate in sociology and anthropology at Concordia University in Canada, argues that Fano has been compelled to fight for self-preservation due to the complicity of the existing administration in the ongoing “Amhara genocide” that has spanned decades.
He further highlights that the conflict in the Amhara Regional State, rooted in the ethnic-based homeland regions established in the 1990s, has marginalized ethnic Amharas scattered across Ethiopia.
Hone believes that the power transition in 2018, led by Abiy, exacerbated the persecution and violence against the Amhara people, with atrocities committed against them becoming more frequent and resulting in numerous casualties. He argues that “most Amhara officials and leaders have either been imprisoned or forced into exile. This has affected members of both the ruling party and other collaborating parties.”
During the Amhara region’s six-month state of emergency, outspoken parliamentarians such as Christian Tadele and Desalegne Chanie (PhD), Yohannes Buayalew, a member of the Amhara Region Council, KassaTeshager, a member of the Addis Ababa City Council, as well as many other Amhara political advocates and journalists, have been detained by “the federal government under the accusation of plotting to overthrow the government.”
According to Adem, the Amhara region is currently in a state of turmoil, as evidenced by the tragic loss of many innocent lives. Downplaying the crisis will only worsen the situation. While the clashes between Fano and federal troops are contained for now, he says continued state intervention risks triggering a public mobilization similar to the conflict in Tigray. Prolonged deployments breed suspicion and anxiety, which are already palpable among the population.
Adem believes that the Amhara people feel politically marginalized and yearn for trustworthy leadership. The administration dismisses the issue as a militia problem, but it is, in fact, a deep-seated grievance shared by the public, he says. “The only viable solution is to establish a regional administration with a genuine public mandate. Negotiations must involve not only the Fano movement but the entire public.”
As Hone points out, “Fano’s resistance has made significant strides by liberating several districts and establishing a presence throughout the region. This impact extends beyond territorial gains, as the existence of Fano acts as a deterrent against massacres targeting the Amhara people, particularly in the Oromia region.”
Adem believes genuine negotiations with political parties representing both the Fano and the general public, together with strong leadership, are required for a long-term solution.
While some remain uncertain about the motives behind the fighting, individuals like Hone argue that their agenda is straightforward: to put an end to the atrocities, prejudice, and persecution endured by the Amhara people due to their ethnicity.
The Fano militia group and its advocates seek a new political settlement, the introduction of new discourses, and the development of new institutions to achieve these goals, Hone claims.
“Fano is seen by many Amharas as the sole force capable of ending the ongoing genocide and shaping the destiny of the country,” argues Hone.
He supports his claim by referring to the “I Am Fano” campaign, which demonstrates the deeply held belief within the Amhara community that Fano is crucial in addressing the challenges they face, particularly the existential threat posed by the ongoing genocide.
The scholar emphasizes that merely changing leaders won’t solve Amhara people’s problems. He noted, “The developments since 2018 show that what’s needed is a new political system, one that recognizes the Amhara as equal citizens and ensures their safety and rights. Only then can there be a truly united, stable, and dignified future for everyone.”
In spite of the federal government’s declaration of regional peace and the recapture of some administrations previously controlled by Fano following months of conflict in the region, the House of People’s Representatives (HPR) voted to extend the State of Emergency in the Amhara region for an additional four months in early February 2024.
During the parliamentary session held to vote on the government’s decision to extend the state of emergency, Abebaw was one of the few MPs who staunchly opposed the extension, urging authorities to engage in constructive negotiations.
He called for action from the legislature, stating, “We are losing our troops who are supposed to defend our territory; many more soldiers are being killed and sacrificed in the conflict in the Amhara region. The government needs to step back. We have seen that the previous six-month emergency law did not bring the peace we need. Let the peace talks begin.”
Adem responded to the extension of the state of emergency, highlighting the reluctance of both federal and regional authorities to engage in challenging discussions. However, oversimplifying the situation and obscuring the reality only worsens the problem, he says adding, despite official statements of peace, the ongoing state of emergency paints a different picture.
In terms of the international community’s response to the situation in Amhara, Adem notes that the attention of the international community is currently divided among various crises worldwide, with Amhara receiving less focus than the Tigray war. However, unlike the more well-known Tigray conflict, the emerging Amhara movement requires effective public relations to raise international awareness of the region’s circumstances.
Hone emphasizes that while there have been condemnations of civilian killings, pressure on PM Abiy has been limited due to a lack of understanding of the Fano movement. He cites recent statements from US officials expressing concern about the situation in the Amhara region. However, Hone acknowledges the institutional challenges and slow response times of the international community.
One longstanding point of contention, particularly within the international community, has been the labeling of the atrocities committed against Amhara as ‘genocide,’ despite the presentation of evidence by Amhara advocates.
On February 16, 2024, the UN Human Rights Council published a statement on its official website recognizing the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia as ‘genocide.’ The statement was reportedly submitted by Coordination des Associations et des Particuliers pour la Liberté de Conscience (CAPLC), a non-governmental organization with special consultative status.
The statement acknowledges the loss of innocent lives, including civilians seeking refuge in hospitals, churches, schools, and other protected spaces due to heavy artillery. It further states, “The Amhara people find themselves entrapped in a cycle of violence and are directly targeted by the Ethiopian Government.”
The official statement posted on the UNHRC’s website calls for swift and resolute action from the international community ‘to address the deteriorating Amhara genocide’.
In its ongoing investigation of crimes committed in the Amhara region, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has documented mass killings and sexual assaults throughout the war, predominantly linked to government troops. Holding those responsible for human rights violations accountable and establishing trust through public investigations are vital for reconciliation.
Earlier this month, the European Union condemned the killings of over 80 civilians in Merawi, Ethiopia, and called for an independent investigation. The EU expressed concerns about the extended state of emergency and reiterated its support for dialogue and peace efforts, urging all Ethiopians to opt for dialogue as a sustainable means to end the conflicts.
The US and the UK called for a comprehensive investigation into the events in Merawi, following the EU’s call for a probe and dialogue to resolve the conflict in the Amhara region.
A month ago, federal government officials embarked on a series of visits to towns and cities in various regional states to engage in public discussions on community concerns. The Amhara region was among the areas where officials held discussions in 15 towns and cities.
These concerns had been voiced for some time, and while the government claims to have an interest in addressing them and engaging in dialogue with different groups, including fighters, the specific actions or mechanisms for achieving these goals remain unclear. The lack of clarity and progress towards addressing these concerns has led to skepticism among many people, as actions speak louder than words.
The utilization of drone strikes by the Ethiopian government has emerged as a contentious aspect of the response to the Amhara crisis. Drone strikes by the government has exacerbated the situation, particularly due to the targeting of civilians.
Different reports and eye witnesses revealed that civilians have been targeted by a number of drone strikes, though the precise number remains unknown. There are reports that claim 1,600 civilian deaths, including over 330 from drone strikes, since the state of emergency began in August 2023. But the figure is unconfirmed by organizations like the EHRC and others. However, various media reports and eye witnesses reported that a single incident resulted in up to 70 civilian deaths, highlighting the potential for significant civilian deaths since 2022 when the federal government started operations in Amhara regional state.
Unfortunately, such methods of crisis response have continued even after the recent ‘public engagement’ by the Prime Minister. Just days after the PM met ‘representatives’, a drone strike killed over 30 civilians, many of whom were returning from a church service and attending an infant’s baptism ceremony.
Such harsh realities make the future gloomier. So far, the impending Shadow of escalation’s inability to address these fundamental challenges has resulted in disastrous repercussions. Continued violence threatens to cause wider instability, affecting not just Amhara but perhaps sparking ethnic tensions across the country.
