A controversial agreement signed at the dawn of the New Year has compounded a sense of unease in one of the world’s most fragile regions, as a war of words, power plays, and geopolitical confrontation take center stage in East Africa.
On January 1, 2024, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) and Muse Bihi, president of Somaliland, inked a memorandum of understanding (MoU) and signed off on a palpable rise in tensions in the Horn of Africa.
“The MoU is intended to serve as a framework for the multi-sector partnership between the two sides. The MoU shall pave the way to realize the aspiration of Ethiopia to secure access to the sea and diversify its access to seaports,” reads a statement from the Office of the Prime Minister released following the signing.
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A few days later, Redwan Hussein (Ambassador), security advisor to the Prime Minister, appeared on state television to elaborate on the controversial agreement. The deal, according to Redwan, will see Ethiopia lease a 20-kilometer stretch on the Somaliland coastline for a period of 50 years.
Called ‘Lughaya,’ the territory is situated on the Gulf of Aden, 128 kilometers south of the ancient port of Zeila.
The Ethiopian government plans to construct a commercial port and naval base on the land, and in exchange, the Somaliland government would receive official recognition of its statehood from Ethiopia, as well as a stake in Ethiopian Airlines or Ethio telecom, according to Redwan.
Little else of the MoU’s contents has been disclosed, but the agreement is portrayed by Ethiopian state media and affiliates as a historic deal and the solution to the country’s long-lived quest for sea access.
Others are less enthusiastic, to say the least.
Unsurprisingly, the government of Somalia wasted no time in condemning the deal and severing diplomatic ties with Ethiopia. Mogadishu denounced the agreement almost immediately as a “clear violation” of Somalia’s sovereignty before recalling its ambassador from Addis Ababa.
“The federal government of Somalia views the deal a hostile move and intrusion into the independence, sovereignty and territorial independence of the Federal Republic of Somalia,” a statement from Mogadishu reads.
“We will not stand idle to watch unresponsive when [Somalia’s] sovereignty is compromised,” said Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
The President has since made visits to Cairo and Asmara in search of allies in the growing feud with Addis Ababa.
Somali nationals, including senior officials and journalists, have also been vocal in their opposition to the deal with breakaway Somaliland, particularly on social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter), calling for international condemnation of Ethiopia.
The escalation of tensions led Workneh Gebeyehu (PhD), executive secretary of the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD), to issue a statement expressing his concerns two days after the deal was signed. He said IGAD was diligently monitoring the situation and recognized the potential implications for regional stability, while calling for dialogue for an amicable solution.
The statement was rebuked by the Somali government, which demanded an apology and a withdrawal from Workneh (a former Ethiopian minister of Foreign Affairs), for falling short of condemning Ethiopia in his statement.
The African Union (AU), European Union (US), the US, and China are among those that have also issued statements calling for dialogue and affirming Somalia’s sovereignty over Somaliland in the last couple of weeks.
The Arab League, and the governments of certain Arab nations, have condemned the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal, with Egyptian diplomats even calling for collaborative action against Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian government, however, remains steadfast in its commitment to the agreement despite the international pressure.
Meles Alem (Ambassador), spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, called the Arab League’s stance a “one-sided view” and described the organization as a “Trojan Horse of some Arab nations.”
Nonetheless, the deal has already had measurable effects in the region. News of attacks targeting Ethiopians living in Somalia followed, while Somali officials recently redirected an Ethiopian Airlines aircraft destined for Hargeisa, seat of the Somaliland government.
Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate terrorist organization based in the Horn, has resumed a new wave of attacks in Somalia in recent days.
Beyond that, Houthi rebel attacks on the Red Sea continue to cast a dark shadow on the crucial shipping lane and stoke fears that increased tensions between countries in the region pushed by foreign actors with their own geopolitical interests may lead the volatile Horn into full-blown chaos.
Observers warn that a new war in addition to the violent conflict already plaguing the region, as well as drought, famine, mass displacement, and refugee crises may lead the impoverished region, once again, into a total mess.
“The US gravely worries about an emerging agreement between Ethiopia and the self-declared independent region of Somalia, Somaliland,” reads a statement from the White House.
A few days following the statement, John Kirby, the US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, said during a press briefing that Washington is ““certainly troubled now by what is reportedly included in a memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland.”
He restated US support for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The AU Peace and Security Council has also warned against a further escalation of tensions, calling for both countries to adhere to the core principles of AU and international law, and dialogue.
The AU has deployed High Representative Olusegun Obasanjo, former Nigerian president, to mediate between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu.
Obasanjo’s deployment comes immediately in the wake of an IGAD extraordinary session in Kampala, Uganda, on January 18, 2024, to discuss the war in Sudan and the rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia.
Attendants included Djibouti President Ismael Omar Guelleh, who called the session; South Sudanese President Salva Kiir, Kenyan President William Ruto, and Uweri Museveni, president of Uganda.
Mike Hammer (Ambassador), US special envoy to the Horn, as well as representatives of the AU, EU, and Arab League were also present at the 42nd extraordinary IGAD leaders’ summit.
Conspicuously, the summit in Kampala was not attended by the leaders of Ethiopia or Sudan. Still, the session concluded with a two-week deadline for a face-to-face meeting between Sudan’s warring generals, and calls for further dialogue between Ethiopia and Somalia.
Although Mogadishu has issued statements welcoming calls for a peaceful resolution from the AU and IGAD, it has also said “there is no space for mediation unless Ethiopia retracts the illegal MoU.”
Somaliland unilaterally declared independence more than 30 years ago and is a de facto state despite being unable to gain recognition from other nations. Somalia repeatedly claims that Somaliland is an integral part of its own sovereign territory. This also goes for Puntland, another breakaway territory that has been acting as a de facto state since 1991.
Both territories unilaterally declared independence following the fall of the Siad Barre regime.
The Somali National Movement (SNM), a rebel group, fought against the then military junta in Somalia before declaring the formation of the independent Republic of Somaliland on May 18, 1991. Ten days later, Ethiopia would see the end of its own civil war and the overthrow of the Derg regime.
However, Somaliland has managed to gain recognition from Somalia or any other UN member states since. The self-declared nation is run by a democratically-elected government, and has maintained a functional state apparatus since independence.
Many countries, including Ethiopia, preferred to maintain informal diplomatic and trade relations with Somaliland without granting it official recognition. Although the issue remains controversial in Somalia, many countries have opened representative offices in Somaliland.
Somaliland officials hope the deal with Ethiopia will be their ticket out from under the shadow of Somalia, but at what cost?
Some observers caution that granting recognition to Somaliland would be akin to opening a Pandora’s Box for the Ethiopian government. Politicians elsewhere, meanwhile, have shown their support.
MP Alexander Stafford of the UK has notably called on the UK government “to start the process to recognize [Somaliland] as a free, independent sovereign nation.”
Domestically, the recent tensions with Somalia are seen by many as a diplomatic test and an overreaction from Mogadishu. Many call for the need to remember Ethiopia’s role in the reconstruction of peace and stability in Somalia via peacekeeping missions.
The regional and international pressure that followed the signing have also raised an argument for strengthening Ethiopia’s diplomatic muscle at both regional and international levels.
Colonel Asmamaw Qelemu (PhD) was a deputy minister in the security service during the Derg regime and has served as an ambassador to Sudan and Somalia. He is a veteran diplomat who keeps a close eye on developments in Ethiopia’s diplomatic affairs.
“Diplomatic strength is determined by three factors,” said Colonel Asmamaw. “First, internal solidarity and political strength. Second, the possession of strategic positions and strategic resources, including seaports, oil, or gas. And thirdly, the diplomatic support acquired in the international arena.”
He argues that Ethiopia maintained its diplomatic balance regionally, continentally and internationally for a century, throughout the Imperial, Derg and EPRDF regimes. However, Asmamaw observes the continuous conflicts and instability in Ethiopia in recent years is exposing the country to failure in the diplomatic sphere.
He notes waning diplomatic support from the US and other influential countries, while relations with neighbors have become strained. Asmamaw sees the country pays a heavy price each time it dives into internal political turmoil.
“Sudan invaded Ethiopia’s borders in the wake of the Tigray war. Historically, Somalia tried to invade Ethiopia three times when it senses internal political division in Ethiopia. I believe Ethiopia should reassess the relationships with neighboring countries,” said Asmamaw.
Yeshitela Wendemeneh, a professor in political science and international relations, argues the country’s diplomatic dimensions lack clarity.
“The needs and priorities of Ethiopia’s political aspirations, national interest, and national security are not clearly visible these days,” he said. “Unless our policy clearly states the country’s diplomatic interests, it is going to be problematic whenever other countries want to build relations with Ethiopia. The dynamics of regional geopolitics are changing. There is change everywhere. Keeping up with those changing situations and [enacting] a policy shift is crucial for Ethiopia.”
