Western powers, including the US and its allies, supported Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) during and after his election, which ultimately contributed to his Nobel Peace Prize win. However, post-2020 in Ethiopia has been defined by violent internal conflicts and the involvement of external powers. Deep-rooted political issues sparked a war between the Tigray Regional State, led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and the federal government of Ethiopia, led by the Prosperity Party (PP). This two-year-long conflict has had far-reaching consequences in humanitarian, social, economic, and political spheres.
The war has also significantly impacted Ethiopia’s diplomatic engagements, involving international institutions such as the United Nations(UN), International Monetary Fund(IMF), and World Bank, as well as its relationships with competing foreign powers like the US, China, UAE, and Turkey.
Despite the signing of the Pretoria agreement on November 2, 2022, which brought an end to the war between the federal government and the TPLF, civil unrest continues in the Amhara and Oromia regional states. Various external powers remain involved in these conflicts, though their level of engagement differs from their previous involvements.
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Amidst the conflict between the TPLF and the federal government, several Western powers extended diplomatic and political support to the TPLF. In contrast, the PP-led federal government and various Diaspora groups strongly oppose this, accusing the US of endorsing the so-called ‘terrorist’ TPLF and infringing on Ethiopia’s sovereignty. Ultimately, the Pretoria agreement was reached, thanks in part to influential external actors such as the US.
The US has taken actions in recent years that have negatively impacted Ethiopia, a crucial security partner in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor, especially in light of competition from China and Russia. The Biden administration has imposed economic, political, and diplomatic pressures on Ethiopia, including a removal from eligibility to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provided tariff-free access.
International and regional institutions such as the UN, World Bank, and EU have also exerted their influence. Numerous meetings have been held at the United Nations Security Council to address the Ethiopian crisis, and the World Bank has restricted the country’s access to aid and loans. While the Pretoria Agreement is significant in quelling the conflict between the Federal government and the TPLF, concerns remain regarding inclusivity and participation, particularly in regards to the agreement’s implementation process.
On November 30, 2023, the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, Africa Subcommittee, assembled to hear testimony from the government regarding the ongoing situation in Ethiopia.
Chairman John James emphasized the committee’s primary focus on assessing the implementation of the peace agreement signed a year ago between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF. However, the Committee’s discussion, and the consistent concerns expressed, primarily centered around the conflict in the northern region, inadvertently overshadowing the severe humanitarian crises unfolding in the Amhara and Oromia regions. Similarly, while acknowledging the need for reconstruction, the significant casualties caused by TPLF forces in the Amhara and Afar regions have been overlooked.
Beyond stating that military solutions are not viable, the US has not pursued similar measures to address the ongoing conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regional states as it did during the northern war in Tigray. When questioned about the Biden administration’s view on the gross violations of human rights currently taking place, Hammer reaffirmed that the administration does not yet see it as a pattern.
Some officials bluntly accused the Ethiopian government, claiming that the Abiy administration is solely focused on resolving the escalating financial crisis and lacks interest in the peace process.
“I am growing concerned that the Ethiopian government is not interested in peace and is solely relying on the West, particularly the United States, to solve its increasing financial woes,” underscored Chairman James.
The issue of AGOA remains unresolved, with Mike Hammer- United States Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa- informing Congress on November 30, 2023, that a decision will be made “in a matter of weeks.” However, no progress has been made on this matter thus far.
Despite the US continuously expressing concern for Ethiopia’s territorial integrity and human rights violations in the Amhara and Oromia regions, its approach to the pre and post-2022 Ethiopian conflict has diverged. This raises questions about the nature of the relationship between the US, the Abiy-led government, and TPLF forces.
Foreign involvement in Ethiopian politics is evident, particularly during consecutive UN Security Council meetings on the Ethiopian case. While some countries, such as Finland and Norway, supported pressure against Abiy’s administration, others like China and Russia opposed these proposals. Turkey and the UAE have also faced accusations of supporting Abiy in its conflict with TPLF forces, a concern repeatedly raised by the former TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda.
In the ongoing conflict in the Amhara and Oromia regions, the US, among others, has expressed concern over Turkey and the UAE’s support. Although Abiy has acknowledged their support, details of the UAE’s role in the wars have not been disclosed.
On the other hand, Ethiopia’s recent membership in BRICS, which includes powerful states like China and Russia, has generated both appreciation and concern, particularly regarding investment, diplomatic support, and human rights violations.
Discussions on Ethiopia’s accession to BRICS suggest potential benefits in trade, investment, and political/diplomatic support not extended by Western powers. However, suspicions have been raised about Ethiopia aligning itself with an alliance known for authoritarian leadership and human rights violations, which some see as an attempt to distance itself from Western powers and UN influence.
Representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) argue that Ethiopia’s entry into BRICS aligns with its national interests without compromising its stance on human rights or its relationships with Western powers, including the US.
Nevertheless, this new membership will draw the attention of BRICS members to Ethiopia, necessitating careful management of the interests of both Western and BRICS nations in areas such as regional security, human rights violations, economic opportunities, and efforts to address or sponsor the ongoing conflict.
The nuanced situation in Ethiopia- transitioning between post-conflict rebuilding and renewed fighting – highlights the complexities of foreign power involvement and its potential consequences. US’s approach to Ethiopia heavily leans towards post-conflict reconstruction, particularly focusing on the rebuilding of Tigray.
Key figures in Congress and the administration have consistently framed the highly disputed and sensitive case of Wolkayit simply as ‘Western Tigray,’ which has elicited contention from the Amhara and Tigray regional states.
Scholars, on the other hand, emphasize the importance of resolving such domestic political issues through Ethiopian-led processes.
While supporting the Pretoria peace agreement and involving in OLA talks in Tanzania, the US also overlooks potential humanitarian crises and long-term security implications of the conflict in the Amhara region, exposing a gap in the inclusivity of US engagement.
One congress member’s statement aligns with the recurring patterns observed in the United States’ approach, although she refrained from specifying the particular instances she referred to. Congresswoman Kamlager Dove expressed her concerns, stating, “I think the African community as a whole would like to see some consistency regarding our outrage to civilian deaths and human rights violations and the need for accountability. I am not justifying any side of any conflict but African countries often feel our double standard.”
The European Union recently announced a new aid package worth 650 million Euros. It reversed its Multiannual Indicative Program, initially slated for completion in 2021 but halted due to the war in northern Ethiopia. EU Commissioner for International Cooperation, Jutta Urpilainea, characterized this suspension as part of the process of “normalization” and “post-conflict” reconstruction.
The Commissioner emphasized that this marks the crucial first step towards normalization, reaffirming the EU’s commitment, along with its member states as part of team Europe, to contribute to Ethiopia’s stability, post-conflict reconstruction, and macroeconomic recovery.
In a similar vein, the provision of drones and other forms of assistance by countries such as the UAE and Turkey introduces a hazardous element to the conflict. These contributions have the potential to prolong the war, impede the likelihood of a peace agreement, and exacerbate the existing humanitarian crises. Consequently, the resulting instability further exposes the state and the Horn of Africa to heightened conflict and insecurity.
For various reasons, both established and emerging powerful nations have become involved in the Ethiopian conflict after 2020. While some countries’ efforts have contributed to silencing the gun and halting hostilities between the federal government and the Tigray regional state, violent conflict and humanitarian crises persist in the Amhara and Oromia regions—the two largest regional states. If these major states exclusively engage with and support one party to the conflict, it will worsen the situation and pose an additional security threat to Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
Diplomats such as Rémi Maréchaux, the French Ambassador to Ethiopia, argue that the case in Amhara remains difficult for international actors due to the “absence” of appropriate political platforms where the case can be discussed.
“I’ve never seen, never read, and never heard of a political platform for engagement,” Ambassador Maréchaux explained to The Reporter.
Human rights advocates are also urging the international community to exert pressure on war-donor states, urging them to reconsider their involvement as it significantly impacts the region’s security.
The Ethiopian conflict weaves a complex tapestry, with foreign powers shaping its trajectory based on their respective interests. The intricate dynamics of the crisis, influenced by varying levels of engagement, motivations, and perspectives among global actors, underscore the need for systematic management by the Ethiopian authorities. Failure to do so risks perpetuating the turmoil and further complicating the already intricate situation.
Alemu Arage is a university lecturer of Political Science and International Relations. He
is currently pursuing a Doctor of Philosophy in Peace and Security Studies at Addis
Ababa University. He can be reached at [email protected].
