When fighting broke out in Khartoum eight months ago, Sudanese officials were quick to play down the gravity of the situation.
Two days after the violence erupted in April, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry released a statement minimizing the ferocity of the violence, and calling for a Sudanese solution to the problems.
“We want to affirm that this is an internal affair that should be left to the Sudanese to achieve settlement, away from international interference,” reads the statement.
RELATED POSTS
Despite the nonchalance, the fighting had already claimed at least 97 lives at the time the statement was released, with hundreds more injured.
Days passed, then weeks and months without any sign of de-escalation of what has become a deadly civil war in the heart of Sudan. Countless calls for a ceasefire and many attempts at encouraging negotiations and a peaceful resolution have not yielded any significant developments. Saudi Arabia and US-led efforts to broker a ceasefire have also failed to end the horror in Sudan.
Fighting between the Sudanese National Armed Forces (SAF) led by the country’s army chief and de facto leader since 2021, General Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) broke out on April 15. General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, a.k.a. Hemedti, leads the RSF – a military junta.
Both men were once close allies of former despot President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for three decades before he was overthrown via popular revolt in 2019. The two generals at the heart of Sudan’s most recent spate of violence played important roles in the ousting of al-Bashir, and took on leading roles in the transitional government formed in the aftermath of the revolution.
Al Burhan and Hemedti led the military half of the transitional government formed in coalition with a civilian administration council led by Abdalla Hamdok.
The transitional government barely lasted two years before the military ousted the civilian administration council and reinstalled military leadership. Any hope of Sudan’s democratization faded away, to be replaced by an increasingly visible power struggle between the two army men at the helm.
Disagreements over plans to integrate the RSF into the Sudanese military eventually set off the war in April this year.
At the heart of the crisis is the personal rivalry between the warring generals, each eyeing complete control over Sudan’s political and military power. However, the scope of the war goes far beyond Al Burhan and Hemedti, and even Sudan itself.
The third-largest country in Africa shares a border with seven countries, including a 753 kilometer stretch with Ethiopia. A certain degree of political fragility haunts Sudan’s neighbors (Ethiopia, Egypt, Eritrea, Chad, South Sudan, Libya, and the Central African Republic), and the country is located in the volatile Sahel region, where extremism and violence have become increasingly commonplace.
Sudan also has a reputation for sheltering extremists like the infamous Osama bin Laden, who lived in Khartoum for five years in the 1990s. Fundamentalism and religious extremism are no strangers to Khartoum’s politics, and its latest bout of violence can open a window of opportunity for Al-Qaeda and IS-affiliate or Salafist groups like Boko Haram to expand from the Middle East, Lake Chad, and Maghreb regions.
Although many argue that other states and international actors have a vested stake in the mess gripping Sudan, the difficulty in achieving a negotiated peace between the two generals is likely the result of a clashing of interests between the powers lurking behind Al Burhan and Hemedti.
In his recent piece for Foreign Policy entitled “How Sudan Became a Saudi-UAE Proxy War,” the renowned Middle East scholar Talal Mohammed argued the Gulf heavyweights are using the conflict as an opportunity to cement their hegemonic status in the Middle East.
He revealed the Saudi government supports the SAF, while the neighboring UAE is arming Hemedti’s RSF.
Former US deputy chief of mission in Sudan, Ambassador David Sheen, recently stated his belief to the BBC that an arms embargo could be the answer to peace in Sudan, if there is support from all parties involved.
His remarks highlight that the US would have to convince Arab allies like Egypt and the UAE, who provide munitions to the Sudanese generals, to stop selling weapons.
“The generals must also ask what they’ll gain from this; by destroying Sudan,” said the Ambassador.
Three weeks after the war broke out, the Sudanese African Affairs analyst Lutoui Tebin (PhD), who currently resides in Ethiopia, noted that the Sudan war is not just a Sudanese affair.
“African Union member states, including neighboring Ethiopia, should respond for a resolution of the crises,” he told The Reporter.
Beshir Nassir, a Sudanese citizen who lives in Addis Ababa, worries the war in his country could spread regionally.
“Africans have to stop it by any means necessary,” he said.
Beshir observes that brokering a peace depends on convincing the leaders of the warring factions to sit down for talks.
But until recently, efforts to bring peace remained uncertain. This changed when the Regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) took over the mediation efforts.
An IGAD Communiqué from the 41st assembly of heads of states and government in Djibouti earlier this month announced the two generals were ready to sit down for face-to-face talks.
The IGAD meeting chaired by the chairperson and Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh, was attended by General Al Burhan, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD), Kenya’s President William Ruto (PhD) and Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (PhD).
Sudanese and Ugandan foreign ministers, as well as IGAD Executive Secretary Workneh Gebeyehu (PhD), were also present.
Commander Abebe Muluneh, director of the IGAD Security Sector Program (IGAD SSP) and IGAD head of mission to Ethiopia, told The Reporter the summit was promising as it drew the attendance of IGAD heads of state and General Al Burhan, as well as steps towards peace in Sudan.
“The two parties accepted the Assembly’s proposals for an unconditional ceasefire, the resolution of the conflict through political dialogue, and a face-to-face meeting,” he said.
Abebe attributes IGAD’s success partly to support from the US, EU, UN, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others.
“It isn’t about who mediated it,” said Abebe. “There will be no peace unless the warring parties come together for a negotiated solution.”
Although when and where the negotiations are planned to take place remains unknown, Abebe says IGAD’s progress is a huge step towards brokering war in Sudan, as well as providing relief in the region.
“The Sudan war is, in one way or the other, affecting neighboring countries. It is possible the situation could get ugly if mercenaries and non-state actors became involved,” he said.
Still, the damage already done to Sudan is impossible to ignore.
When the revolution ended al-Bashir’s regime, winds of optimism for real democratic change blew throughout Sudan. Alas, in four years Sudan went from the promise of transition to a devastating civil war.
Khartoum, home to more than five million people, has transformed into a fierce battleground. Other important cities such as Omdurman and Jabal Awliya have also fallen victim to the violence and destruction.
Al Burhan’s SAF have repeatedly used heavy force, including air bombardment, during the conflict. Hemedti and the RSF, meanwhile, hold key frontlines in Khartoum and the Darfur region.
Reports of crimes and atrocities committed against civilians are reported in areas controlled by both belligerents, including semi-autonomous regions like North Kordofan.
The crisis in Sudan has largely flown under global radar too busy with the happenings in Ukraine and, more recently, Gaza.
After eight months of war, nearly 18 million people in Sudan are facing acute hunger. The number is “equivalent to the entire population of the Netherlands and more than double the number at the same time a year ago,” according to Leni Kinzli, spokesperson for the World Food Program (WFP) in Sudan.
At least 12,260 victims have been killed and more than 33,000 injured in the conflict, according to UN figures. Nearly 6.8 million people have fled their homes seeking safety in Sudan or neighboring countries, including Ethiopia.
Sitotaw Chane is a public relations officer for the administration of Metemma town, which sits on the border between Ethiopia and Sudan.
Sudan’s transitional government deployed troops to the contested al-Fashaga border region in November 2020, just as Ethiopia descended into its own civil war.
He told The Reporter that although the number of refugees flowing in from Sudan has recently begun to wane, it has by no means ceased.
Shelters and rehabilitation centers have been set up in the area with the help of international aid agencies and NGOs.
Ethiopia has a long-standing border conflict with its neighbor Sudan. Sudan’s transitional government deployed troops to the contested al-Fashaga border region in November 2020, just as Ethiopia descended into its own civil war.
The conflict in Sudan could also have implications for the trilateral negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.
Cairo has not officially taken sides in the Sudan conflict, but has obvious reason to support Al Burhan and the SAF. Both Cairo and Khartoum want to push back against the GERD project, which they say will cut into their share of water in the Nile.
On Al-Jazeera’s Inside Story segment titled “What will the war in Sudan mean for Ethiopia,” Itana Dinka (Associate Prof.) said “the Sudan conflict is directly correlated not only with the Ethiopian conflict, but also the Eritrean problem.”
Sitotaw believes the recent conflict escalation in the Eastern Sudan region may cause a refugee flood to cross the Ethiopian border. Ethiopia has already housed over 40,000 Sudanese refugees. He predicted that if the war in the bordering regions of Gedarif, Metema, and Blue Nile, Sennar, and Kassala continued, a large number of refugees would cross the Ethiopian border. He added that Gedarif city, located a half-day drive from the Metama border, is currently the temporary home of Ethiopia’s Embassy, and that a large number of Ethiopians live there.
The RSF’s control of Wad Madani, a major humanitarian hub, forced over 500,000 people to flee in search of safety. According to the IOM, over 300,000 people fled Wad Madani as the city fell into the hands of RSF. According to UNICEF, at least 150,000 children were forced to flee their homes in Al-Jazeera state within a week. According to Stephen Dujarric, the UN Secretary General’s spokesperson, “the renewed fight brings the displaced population to 7.1 million, including 1.5 million who have taken refuge in neighboring countries.”
The United Nations Security Council requested on December 22 an immediate cessation of hostilities and open passage to allow humanitarian aid to reach Sudanese people. The UN Security Council issued a brief statement welcoming the leadership of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union, emphasizing the critical role of neighboring countries and the Jeddah forum, and emphasizing their support for the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy, Ramtane Lamamra. Amid growing concern about the resumption of a conflict, new hope for negotiation is emerging across mainstream media.
