Bahir Dar, Ethiopia’s third largest city, is known for its picturesque location on the shores of Lake Tana and Tis Abay fountain. But in early August 2023, the city is eerily quiet.
Residents who typically commute via bicycle are nowhere to be seen. Streets are blocked by makeshift barriers of rocks and logs. There are no buses or taxis; shops and government offices are shuttered.
Gunfire echoes from the airport and stadium on the highway to Gondar. Conflicting parties are fighting to control the airport in Zenzelima and Kebele neighborhoods, witnesses tell The Reporter.
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“Fano and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) are battling at the outskirts, mainly for control of the airport and other locations. Fano and youth supporters blocked roads to prevent ENDF tanks from entering the city. Nothing is functioning in Bahir Dar now,” a witness said. The capital seat is a politically significant prize.
The situation reflects a broader escalation across Amhara region between Fano and federal forces in the last two months. Most major cities are experiencing similar tensions and flare-ups.
Ethiopian Airlines canceled flights the first week of August to Bahir Dar, Gondar, Kombolcha, Lalibela, and Debre Birhan. The highway from Addis Ababa to Amhara is deserted with stranded travelers. Commercial banks have reportedly halted cash flows, halting economic activity.
Fano, a vigilante group that traditionally defended the Amhara people during threats, has gained both popularity and arms strength during the war with the Tigrayan combatants in Northern Ethiopia. Though few predicted Fano’s growing power would cause conflict – that is now the reality.
Once praised by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for bravely fighting alongside government forces, officials have now turned against Fano. They accuse the group of looting, attacking security forces, freeing prisoners, and destroying public institutions in Amhara region.
Temesgen Tiruneh, former Amhara region president and now head of Ethiopia’s cybersecurity agency, criticized Fano strongly. He said the group was an “informally armed force devastating the region economically and socially.”
The government recently declared a State of Emergency and established command posts in Amhara to implement it. Officials say the situation exceeds normal law enforcement capabilities. The posts will operate for six months and oversee four branch offices.
Despite labeling Fano an “informal armed group targeting looting and robbery”, Temesgen believes Fano aims to overthrow the Amhara regional government and then the federal government. He claims the conflict partly stems from the ruling party’s weakened presence in Amhara.
Temesgen said the command posts will strengthen the ruling party’s activities and mobilize the public. He hinted at political factors, saying “The Prosperity Party is working to solve Amhara people’s valid questions.”
Several opposition parties, including Ezema, urged negotiating with Fano instead of fighting the group and imposing command posts. But officials now see Fano as a threat rather than an ally.
While the factors differ, the pattern of the new armed conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara region mirrors the five-year insurgency in Oromia in several ways.
Both the Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLF-Shene) battle government forces at the federal and regional levels. Both stem from failed post-conflict reconciliation initiatives. Both rely on ethnic polarization and public mobilization tactics and attempt to seize strategic areas through guerrilla attacks on government positions. Their ultimate aim appears to cripple all government structures in their respective regions and seize regional power.
Officials from the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) say the Oromia conflict results from the government’s failure to honor the 2018 Asmara Peace Accord signed between Abiy’s administration and the OLF.
“The major causes of today’s issues in Ethiopia spring from the government not living up to the Asmara agreement,” says Jabessa Gabisa, an executive committee member and political affairs director for the OLF.
The Accord included rehabilitating and integrating OLF fighters into government security forces, but Jabessa claims the government did not honor the agreement. This led Oromo youth to abandon peaceful political opposition and join the insurgent group in Oromia, he maintains.
The case of Fano shows similar patterns.
After signing the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022 to end the two-year bloody conflict in northern Ethiopia, the government rolled out plans to rehabilitate and integrate informal forces like Fano, though the initiative mainly focused on Tigray Defense Force (TDF).
The government also rolled out a new security apparatus policy to reshuffle the regional paramilitary special police forces commanded by regional governments. The size of the special forces had swollen substantially in recent years, consuming regional state budgets. The show of force competition between regional states has worried the federal government.
But when the government moved to implement the reshuffle policy, 30 percent of Amhara Special Forces left camp and joined Fano. According to regional officials, the special force units misunderstood the restructuring policy as “disarming.”
This exodus has bolstered Fano and led to escalating clashes with ENDF, reports indicate.
Some sources and analysts say Fano also has the backing of the Eritrean government, as both are unhappy with the Pretoria Agreement.
Officials of the Tigray Interim administration (TIA) say Fano and Eritrean forces still occupy western, southern and northern Tigray.
“Immediately after the northern Ethiopia war ended, we called for these informal armed groups [Fano] to come in, get training and integrate into government security forces,” explains Temesgen. “Some of them have come in through negotiations and started civilian life, but then they rejoined the armed group again.”
Such shuffling between integrating and re-joining armed groups is not limited to Oromia and Amhara. It is a well-played tactic by armed groups in Benishangul and Gambella in recent years and ongoing. Factions within the armed groups negotiate with the government, come home after welcome ceremonies, and are either given land to restart their lives or join security forces. But when opportunities or conflicts arise, they rejoin the armed groups in the forests.
These trends indicate the government’s shortcomings in dealing with armed groups, enforcing agreement terms, and fully integrating returning armed group fighters. Opening political space for dialogue, addressing public grievances at the root, and demystifying the proliferation of ethnic-based armed groups must be coupled with job creation for youth.
Another factor fueling rising conflicts nationwide is lack of internal coherence within the ruling party, said Adanech Abebie, Addis Ababa’s mayor, in a speech to her cabinet last week.
“Some party members in government positions stand with one foot outside, supporting anti-peace forces,” the mayor said. “You cannot continue doing so. You represent this government and must implement what the government says. Either you have to be on the government’s side and fight anti-peace forces with us or you have to join them and fight us.”
The mayor depicted officials in the ruling party providing cover for armed groups in their respective regions and ethnic backgrounds.
Nevertheless, analysts say a bigger picture underlies escalating conflict, especially in Amhara. They claim clashes between Fano and ENDF stem from the government’s plan to give disputed land areas like Wolkait, Tsegede, Raya, and Tselemt to Tigray.
“Amhara region is a big region. Leading that big region into chaos will also spill-over into disability across the country,” says Belay Mengistie (PhD), a political analyst closely following conflict developments.
He says several factions will be created and start inter-regional fighting, so “the federal government must be able to resolve the conflict in Amhara as soon as possible.”
But until then, Ethiopia’s cycle of violence risks worsening and spreading further, exacerbating instability and suffering across the nation.
